If you read the GOP pundits, the Trump phenomenon was framed as this year's Herman Cain. "He'll fade." Back in 2012, establishment anointed Mitt Romney was stuck around 20-25%. He always had a challenger or trailed an oddball with equivalent numbers. The rotating, lead alt-candidate was a weird switch that involved Perry, Cain, Gingrich and Santorum. All of those men enjoyed the hard to quantify but conservative voter bloc support. Some would call it the lower info voter bloc that latches onto a new thing. For all his gaffes, Gov. Perry was the only candidate besides Ron Paul to attack the FED. The GOP punditry thought this was Trump's role. They thought he was securing the oddball, loosely defined vote. This has been proven incorrect.
The guffaws and expectations of his demise would be proven if only the right debate attack was taken. The GOP candidates focused on slamming Trump to dent his support, but it did not happen. Vox is right to point out how 50% of the voters support non-politicians (unconventional politicians seems better), which should be echoing in the Establishment's ears non-stop. The bloc of voters that rotated through men in 2012 seems to be the bloc that pushed Carson and is now split between Carson and Fiorina."But but but she was suppose to eat Trump's poll numbers?!?!?!"
No one wanted to admit immigration is that important. The GOP elite did not want to admit openly that they wanted to sell out their base for open borders, and that Trump knew what a big slice of the base wanted. They cannot call him the crank, loose voter bloc since that bloc seems to be elsewhere. He also has given those voters as us vs. the world feeling, which is a sticky glue for a group. This could be the Grand American Party strategy recommended by others or just an echo of the Perot revolt of 1992. Something feels different about this with open socialist Senator Bernie Sanders beating up on Clinton at the moment.
Trump will most likely fail, but he is not a Cain-like phenomenon. For the GOP race, he sits in the kingmaker seat to either win the nomination or play kingmaker. The GOP's job is to lose closely so nominee Jeb at a brokered convention is a possibility. Even if elected, nothing will change because how is he going to get around the civil service. Maybe he could re-engineer the Obama youth corps and the FEMA camps already built to create a different authority outside of the current civil service for the express purpose of "physically removing" illegals, but I doubt it. It still leaves the press and academia untouched. As we have seen with this current third world invasion of Europe, the press will twist everything to fit their needs.
There is one possible positive outcome. Fragmentation is everywhere. There must be one savvy state official or little congressman with his eyes on a governorship of a red state in flyover land taking notes. Listen to Trump's message: DC is the problem, the system is corrupt, hedge funds rip you off, politicians are all bought, no nation without borders or law enforcement is a nation. Now let's rework it and set it elsewhere and in another time...
Oklahoma, January 2023
"I was sworn in as governor for a second term for the great people of Oklahoma. Some have asked if I was contemplating a run for the presidency. No. No I will not run for president. I refuse to dance at the end of strings for a corrupt system that does not care for my people. As governor I have witnessed the detrimental effect that no borders and no law enforcement has had on my state. I have fought it where I could. At every turn, I was fought by the elite in DC and New York. Those same powers that disregard the effect of illegal immigration and the plight of the little people have been lightning fast to push any deviancy they can dream up on the God fearing Christians of this land. These same powers have hamstrung any entrepreneurial spirit in this nation that did not toe their line and are at fault for the recent reports that Social Security is set for automatic reductions in just 2 years. This is a betrayal of the very contract it made with the people. They betrayed our parents who paid into the system to bail out their big banking friends in New York. This system cannot be removed because of the government dependents those fat cats have as a willing voting bloc. I will not run for president, not just because the system is corrupt and phony. I will not run because this is no longer a nation. As America is no longer a country but an idea, a proposition if you will, we will no longer be a part of such a corrupt, degraded system."Vox missed one other scary figure beyond the Trump number. The scariest part to the Trump poll numbers should be that the percentage of Republicans who support Trump matches the percentage of all Americans under 30 that support secession.