In yesterday's post, I cited the American parallels to the Austro-Hungarian Empire. That disintegration is a guide for how things could go. Secession can be a break up into the 50 state units. Secession could be a break up into five or six entities. That will depend on the behavior of those in charge if, or when, it happens. How much will people value autonomy and specifically cultural and social independence. Free association and the right to exclude matter, and we can see it today. A multicultural empire makes people feel insecure. It was a key problem for the AHE as well, and before people start playing games with secession pieces, one has to keep that in mind. Humans and their irrational emotions will make things messy.
The culture wars are still ongoing and as long as we remain one nation of ever increasing diversity, the culture war moves will get odder. Both sides seek to codify into law that which they fear they are not enforcing with social norms. Gay marriage is a perfect example of that. Both the move to codify gay marriage and the move to codify marriage as between men and women. Insecurity drives that desire. Thirty years ago, no one would have even thought of gays marrying, except for some NYC Jews, but as things become unstable, both sides moved to codify their views into law. The AHE went through this with Germanization or even the Catholic/non-Catholic friction within the Empire. Culture war battles are won by the DC-NYC elites, which is constantly forcing their system on a reluctant flyover population. Just this week, the incredibly idiotic things said by government officials and written by leftist pundits have placed multiculturalism and open borders over the common sense approach of quarantine and stopping inbound flights from ebola infected nations. The social and cultural divisions is what will force a break from a financial and economic crisis. The easy money papers over divisions, but when it is gone, the cultural and social divisions will be laid bare.
If you doubt certain elements in American state governments looking at the possibility, look at the gold and silver legal tender legislation that has popped up in some states. The NY Times repeatedly produces hit pieces on North Dakota's oil boom. While it serves the purpose of smearing domestic oil production on private land (Progs: Damn that independent wealth generation!), North Dakota is also the only state with a state run financial institution that operates like a little central bank, and if not perfectly like a central bank, could be altered wonderfully and quickly to fully fit the purpose. By using Occupy minded idiots on the left, a GOP state treasurer in a red state with an eye on the governorship in the 2020s could get one up in running in his state for eventual exit. Some financial vessel would have to accept the Social Security in and out flows when you jump ship?
When secession maps get made, they look incredibly silly if the person has never stepped foot outside their home region. Illinois is always slipped over to whatever region is a "blue state" region, but the bottom 2/3 of Illinois is much more like Indiana and Missouri than your average Acela corridor location. How do you categorize Florida? How about any state with one major metropolis that throws everything out of whack? County by county voting coloring might be a better reflection of reality. Secession is more city vs. rural, which is something Spengler mentioned with the city human being any piece that was part of the maw. I've written before how California's brand of left is more one party, Latin American style than New England's Western European styled progressivism, and that is mostly demographics. I can envision 50 separate units like our states. I also can envision rump states like Cascadia, California, Texas, North Mexico, Red State America, Acela Corridor-burg and then there is that pesky Upper Midwest.
I focus on Chicago for a reason. The corruption is scandalous with the gangs providing the electoral muscle to the politicians. The asset stripping has begun to pay off short term debts. Per the steady posts of Steve Sailer, the city's civil government, financial and real estate powers, under Rahm Emanuel, are attempting a NYC/DC styled, long term gentrification project. Projects and decisions that have a long term effect on the entire state are all due to the systemic dysfunction and rot within the metropolis. Industry flees down state Illinois for other states because of state government financial decisions that are to support Chicago's political machine, which is patronage to maintain dominance of state wide elections and the presidential electoral votes. How does Illinois act in a secession movement? Who splits from whom and who declares allegiance to what authority? Even if the state is allowed to split intact, if the rabble still call for "one man, one vote" elections, what type of oversight is given to that election? Gangs and fraud might be palatable in our fat empire stage, but possibly not if a new organization is at risk.
That really is the key. Authority, people, and the belief that people are different or people are all the same and no matter the packaging they are a good little Progressive just under the surface. Break up is a longer shot, but the very policies with immigration that move the US closer to Brazil could be the ignition to the secession movement. While assimilation happened to a good degree with pre-1925 immigration, it needed multiple national traumas (World War Two and the Depression) and a leadership group to emulate (WASPs) to succeed. My small town had multiple ethnic festivals that slowly dwindled or disappeared due to assimilation into "American". Post-1965 immigration has been a disaster because of our managerial, Harvard selected elite and the multiculturalism doctrine. Not assimilating feeds into secession by setting up Pakistan on the Mississippi, Mogadishu in the Twin Cities and whatever you want to call Miami. No nationwide problems will be fixed, and battles for codification of cultural mores will become worse. Things can break, but do not expect a result to resemble the 50 different puzzle pieces you see in a grade school classroom.
*Welcome Heartiste readers.