Saturday, November 10, 2012

Red/Blue Divide: Drifting Towards Secession

In my prior post, I discussed lightly the idea of red and blue seeping deeper into our culture. Michael Barone's article on the two countries is pretty accurate. This is an important change that is why I give 7-1 odds on a US break-up or secession scenario. Sailer's concept of white female fertility tracking Bush's vote totals is part of this concept. It's not that making it affordable to have a family is the key to electoral success, but that the white voters who value the idea of having a family and multiple children are the type of voters who vote GOP. You can make it affordable to have a family all you want, but there are some whites who will never ever have kids, or they will have one kid just to get it over with. This is just one example of the cultural shift amongst the states. This split is beginning to express itself at the state law level concretely and will force a break-up.

While optimistic types like Glenn Reynolds of Instapundit point out gun freedoms growing in blue states as a positive sign, the red/blue divide has grown. What started in 2000 as a simple designation by the news channels on what state voted what way, the media amplified this with series of articles on the differences between the red and blue states, and Hollywood has pitched in with some great movies or tv series showcasing one side or the other. Portlandia mocks the SWPL blue staters while Talladega Nights mocks southern red staters. As Barone types, there is less and less cultural cohesion across America. People will fear that their culture has less hold on the population and will seek to codify their beliefs or what they consider proper behavior into law. This red vs. blue cultural clash is hardening down to the state rep level as former red states that could have blue state houses are vanishing because the red state voters no longer can trust even a blue politician from their area.

When you start to look at the map, you see the blue model states failing hard as Walter Russell Mead likes to point out. These blue states also have industries in common. Those states have seen manufacturing leave, either offshore or for right to work low tax/cost red states, and replaced that with health care, education, finance, IT and creative class industries. A common thread to those industries is how raw materials have little impact to their expenses. They don't understand the need for raw materials like a plastics manufacturer in Indiana or an inorganic chemicals producer in Texas. State governments craft policies that help their industries, so this cycle will continue as the economic powers in control of the politics of those states will rent seek for themselves.

As states vote on ballot measures, it becomes obvious where fault lines are. How many red states will constitutionally ban gay marrige? How many will allow it? How many of those states will reform public unions or move to right to work? How many will dig in for union support? What state or city will politically pressure groups that engage in phony hate speech? Which ones will not engage in that but push to express their love of religion? When you see state referendum ballot results, you see where the fault lines are. I still see a 3 or 4 country split out of the USA, but the demographic groundwork was laid out after '65 + the legislative groundwork is being laid now. The red/blue divide will grow as whites in red states will vote even more GOP due to the federal government granting more goodies for the Dem minorities in their states. Blue states will vote even more Dem because of their need to feed the coalition. The purple upper Midwest is the weird one to call. Without the rampant ballot stuffing or dead people voter fraud, is that region red? People will continue in heir quest to codify their cultural beliefs because a unified culture is gone from America.

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