Friday, September 21, 2012

International Interest in a USA Break Up

We do live in interesting times. Whether you are a wave cycle theorist, a demographics watcher or an economic collapse believer, you know we're in the middle of a transition. This applies to nearly all regions of the world. Few places are going to resist the upheaval. Those that do not undergo significant change will still see a change like 3rd world countries getting even crappier or a country like Japan seeing their living standards decline. Think a breakup of the US is never going to happen. It can. One factor rarely discussed is outside interference from foreign powers. An important thing to note is that countries have interests not allies. How often interests align determines how often the country is considered an ally. A split would serve other major players to see the USA split into multiple states that would reflect different interests.

With the USA as the current hyperpower on the world stage, all other powers would enjoy seeing it dismantled. This would allow those powers to have more force projection and control in their regions. China cannot take over the world cop role that the US has handled for years. They have a giant schism between the coast and the mainland to balance, internal power struggles, and they are not quite ready for primetime. In the future, they will have dominance in their region, but this might only come with massive internal change. Different regional powers would see a huge gain if the USA would be knocked down from hyperpower to rump states so it would be in their interest to facilitate a breakup. What is also important to note is if a rump state or two would have more interests in common with different regional powers.

Who are the future multipolar regional powers? Let us look at the board and consider Russia, Germany, Brazil, and China as the majors with India, Japan and something in the middle east as minors. I say something in the ME now because the recent toppling of multiple dictators puts the idea of a pan-arab force out there or just a jumbled crapfest that diverts attention from major players as they try to control oil fields. All of the majors would love to see a sliced up USA just for greater influence and control of the international functions and mechanisms that govern international interaction. The world bank, the WTA, the IMF, the UN are the big prizes and pieces up for grabs. There is much to gain for those regional powers on the international stage. There is also the removal of the US obstacle when they want to exert power and control in their backyard. US interests and interference would disappear and be replaced by the varied rump state interests of the split pieces.

Specific interest realignments would occur. China's mining of Africa would face what international opposition or even attention if the USA became 4-5 states? Russia could have a new OPEC partner as the Rockies to the Southeast red state are became an oil + nat gas exporter overnight. Brazil could find new markets for its sugar based ethanol if the Bos-DC or West Coast area (Cascadia) didn't have to appease corn farmers of the Midwest with ethanol tariffs. Russia is an interesting case as they are anti-PC, homogenous, fierce in retribution towards Muslims, and an oligarchy controlled by their commodity producers (primarily oil and gas). Present day Russia sounds similar to how I envision the conservative nation state from Montana to the Southeast. Weird stat: four of top five producing US states (>50% of US producion) are 'red' + the gulf of mexico is a big chunk of the rest of domestic production. With current science, the shale oil in ND, Montana and the rest of the US as well as what is currently off limits in red states due to enviros would be a big bonanza. In a weird reversal of Cold War attitudes, I see those red staters buddying up to Russian international stances due to their similar interests.

The KGB looked at trends in the US decades ago and saw a split coming. I assume their intelligence community sees it even more ripe for division now with increased Mexican immigration and political
polarization. The Chinese must see this as well, even if they have a lot of internal problems to deal with in 2012. Other major players like Germany and Brazil will see the benefit of a broken US as well. A broken USA would be far better for them than a 'angry at its decline + armed to the teeth' USA. As split pieces, the rump states will be focused on each other and their borders first, allowing for a free hand for a while if not indefinitely. Pieces will fall into place. If they do not fall into place, do not be surprised to see the major players start to prod factions within the USA one way or the other to foster a climate of secession and breakup.

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