Wednesday, September 26, 2012

Election 2012, a Bond-Currency Crisis + Failing Leadership

When I review the 2012 Presidential picture, I get this weird feeling that the leadership groups of both parties don't want to win nearly as much as the bases of the parties was to win. Considering the actions of big players in the summer of 2011 to today, something feels amiss. There are also the comments by Romney at a fundraiser where he discussed quite bluntly the odd rigged game of government borrowing that is going on today. Looking at economic fundamentals and moves in big money, the party leaders might realize that the game is nearly up and a US currency or bond day of reckoning is at hand. Neither party wants the blame, but they can't just throw the election for fear of down ticket ramifications.

A currency or bond day of reckoning is far more sinister than the dot com equity plunge or the 2008 financial crisis hit to 401ks. A currency/bond harsh adjustment affects every single fixed income note or bond. Each bond or note must pay a premium over the US Treasuries as they carry more risk, therefore every single mortgage, credit card, student loan would see its rate jump by a corresponding amount. Even worse is that in a currency crisis, the method of measurement (the dollar) itself would be in flux. This would screw over many folks with pricing necessities and companies that deal in raw materials whether as product or input. The disruption to our economy would be intense, inflation would hit double digits for a couple years, and there would be intense resistance to change from the populace as living standards would quickly drop.

Would anyone want to be holding the executive power when this happens? I predicted that Romney would run as the economic Mr. Fix-it, and if things weren't turned around by 2011, Obama was toast. That is still a possibility. It was also my prediction before Obama turned out to be quite the Wall St. toadie and a very easy to manipulate negotiating partner for the GOP. Consider how Obama extended the Bush tax cuts before the GOP even took over congress. Consider that the GOP tied a spending limit increase to spending cuts while holding just one house of congress. Has that ever happened? Has the opposition party ever wrestled that win with just the house? Bill Clinton never would've let that happen. Obama is a weak negotiator, and let's face it, in every single respect with every type of opposition. Even with more flexibility in a 2nd term, how much do you think he's going to put it over a GOP held congress or even a GOP held congress and senate? I'm starting to think that the GOP is content with losing the executive election, holding congress and then blaming Obama for the currency/bond crisis in his 2nd term.

Hill-dawg did not primary Obama despite Bill saying she should. Hill-dawg isn't even out there campaigning for Obama (she's apologizing to Muslims for videos, not drones). Mitch Daniels did not run, Bobby Jindal did not run, and the darling of the GOP, Chris Christie, did not run. Even some liberal websites have noticed points that the GOP are avoiding, and that Obama's acceptance speech was pretty lame with no plan for his 2nd term. The GOP can get what it wants from Obama, but he takes the blame when things go bad in 2014-2015. I consider Obama and Romney products of the end of an era in US politics like how LBJ/Nixon were the end of one era of Washington Consensus.

Both sides know. They all know the hammer is going to drop. They don't want to be the one to have the blame pinned on them as it would crush their personal power opportunities. Romney said behind closed doors a truth about our deficit situation, but he's not offering any solutions or break up the too big to fail banks moves. None of them will step up and be frank with all Americans about what is coming. Better for it to be a “who couldda seen it” moment than a problem we address frankly and openly. We will all suffer for this failure in leadership.


Harry Baldwin said...

Interesting thoughts. I thought the 2009 - 2013 presidential term would see the flooding of the watertight compartments, but somehow the USS Titanic remains afloat. If Obama is reelected and TSHTF afterward, it'll be hard for him to keep blaming everything on Bush, even with a complicit media. If Romney is elected and TSHTF, he will get all the blame of course and the Republicans will have another Hoover to live down.

Son of Brock Landers said...

Thanks for reading. The positive thing the US has had going for it is that the problems of govt finance have so far been on the periphery of the dollar zone. It's been fringe euro countries that cause strain first on core euro countries and then the us financial system. The bond crisis chain will make its way to the US once the euro zone resolution occurs. If I had to guess, it will be europe, then Japan (quick resolution compared to europe), then the US in 2015-2016.