Thursday, August 18, 2011

Will Obama Pull an LBJ?

Every single time I think Obama can't look any weaker, he manages to surprise me. The debt ceiling deal is amazing as he didn't get anything he asked for, went back on things he'd vow he wouldn't do "I will not yield", and gave in to the party that held one house of congress. No one ever associated debt ceiling limits with other policy decisions. How in the world did Obama not see this when he extended the Bush tax cuts???? Is he that bad of a politician?

Yes. He is. He is great at selling himself. He is very book smart. He allowed people to project onto himself whatever they wanted? Brilliant technocrat moderate. Fierce liberal who will fight liberal fights. Calm under pressure. The smart black man married to a proudly black woman. The black kid raised by good white people. Whatever you wanted, he allowed you to think. A friend who works in congress thinks Obama would be best at a law school, wowing the 1st years and saying pleasant things to the academics. He called him the accidental president. I disagree. I believe president is a job he's always wanted, but once he attained it, he hated it. He's floundering now, and does he have any good surprises in the basket between now and fall of 2012? I don't think so.

Sitting at 1600 Penn Ave on the deck smoking a cig, does he have such an ego that he will run even if it looks dark or will he pull an LBJ and bow out? He's going to make that decision early 2012 to give the Dem team a chance to put together a candidate (Hillary or Howard Dean most likely) and get the cycle cranked. I think his ego is too big to play the humble role of LBJ, but let's put some odds out there. I would make it a longshot, but I'd say it is 20-1 right now that he'd not run for re-election. I made it a closer long shot as the long knives are coming out now, and his internal polling must reveal some scary data for a guy 15 months from election day with no economic recovery in sight. To my Democrat friends, I hope for your sake he steps down and gives Hillary a shot because she's your best chance in 2012. To my GOP friends, don't gloat because you can still lose, and even if you win, you have 3 years to get anything going. Of course, the Dem bench is so weak that '16 might see a 69 yr old Hillary running or some thin resumed fresh face.

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