Wednesday, June 28, 2017

Democrats Won't Be Primaryed

It has been floating around the sphere and even wider Internet. What exactly? That the Democrats face the possibility of being primaryed or will collapse. Julian Assange had an interesting wall of text tweet that mentioned the Democrats' chances for collapse, and several others have discussed the base frustration, the base's split and the chance for primarying. It will not happen.

One need not look far back for the last time this was floated out. Hey, rememeber Occupy Wall Street kids? I wrote in 2012 why OWS failed while the Tea Party was a success. Michael Lewis was so ignorant of the game that he thought OWS would be the bet for long term success and how fast did OWS die? Within three, maybe five months? I will count the spending slowdown and sequestration when only holding one portion of Congress as success.

The Tea Party rallies eventually sucked in big money donors that could use candidates to jump ahead of well developed paths and get their pet issues and cronyism some attention. The major thing though was culturally the right had a core of middle and upper middle class angry voters that could pool money for fundraising, use the internet and shrink GOPe vs. Insurgent money gaps from 10-1 to 3-1. Enthusiasm made up for the rest.

There is no separate pool of money to fund insurgents versus the Left's current system. Bernie voters are young and broke. Look at the Left's coalition. The Jews, gays and older whites are all Clintonistas, and the Obama crowd, which is pure puppetry. They won't rebel. Blacks and Mexicans do not have money to fund insurgent candidates. Asians are a smaller voting bloc, have some money but their desires and needs would clash with the voting muscle in D districts.

If there is a possibility, it lies with an outsider. Here is where Zuckerberg comes in. Zuck was just in Iowa, visiting the world's largest truck stop. If you've been there, you're probably laughing at the idea of Zuck walking around with his security detail just out of camera range. Maybe he does not run, but if he wants to run in 2020 or 2024, then here is a path and means that involves primarying the incumbent Ds.

1. Dems having infighting. Zuck can see trends online to gauge how much and who to mobilize.
2. Zuckerberg is thinking 2020 or 2024.
3. Zuck sees chance with angry base.
4. Zuck becomes the deep pockets and sets up a SuperPAC that is Occupy Wall St themed or economic populist themed to primary a shit ton of old timer Dems.
5. The deeper the blue district or state, the easier this is. Look at how Cantor lost. He lost because his district was so safely red that there was a mass of angry red voters to toss him out, and on the cheap!
5a. The Daley machine is dying, which is a problem for Rahm in the here and now, so imagine what Zuck could do in some districts with the proper puppets.
6. He ends up being the name everyone on his side discusses in the 2018 election cycle a la Nixon in '66.
7. Some of his candidates win, not all, but some. With his control of Facebook and not being an official candidate, he can shift Facebook feeds to his favored candidates.
8. He now has a SuperPAC that is outside normal channels and has the Facebook media org tied to promote people with an election cycle under his belt. It becomes a practice election.
9. 2020 Zuck runs and if he won would walk in with democrats grateful to him dependent on his power island.

Dems cant be primaryed because their money donors are all enjoying the slower move to the left a la GoldmanSachs with a rainbow flag style. No one can primary them? What source of funds is there to fund these candidates? NONE. Zuck solves that on his own. Zuck would not start a party, doing what Macron just did. Too much effort.

Zuckerberg may not be positioning for a run at all but something else. In all honesty, he has more power now as leader of the Facebook maw than being the occupant of the Oval Office. Maybe Zuck wants to be tech czar in a future Democrat administration, where he can do to tech policy what GE did with industrial policy under Obama.

He has trend data. Zuck can also see the writing on the wall. He has access to trend data no one else does that is all tied to real people. Zuck could just be positioning himself for mercy if the plebians get the torches and pitchforks out.

Tuesday, June 27, 2017

Weimerica Weekly Episode 76 - Lena Dunham

New Weimerica Weekly is up. I spend a dozen minutes or so discussing Pax Dickinson's Counterfund. It is important as a development for dissidents and then how it can be used by other groups. After that introduction, I spend time discussing how Lena Dunham is the perfect symbol for Weimerican females.

Monday, June 26, 2017

It's Over For Guitar Center

Guitar Center received the big warning from Moody's, letting the media know that the party is over for the big retailer. Change is coming. It is only a matter of time and the form of change. It seems odd to focus on one suffering firm, but this is emblematic of the problem with our FIRE economy and where things are moving in the future.

Guitar Center (GC) was in a really strong position a decade ago. Don't take my word for it, read this Fortune blurb from late 2006. Revenue was soaring, they were expanding online and they were going to expand in meatspace up to 420 stores. The stock was $43/share then, so when Bain organized an LBO at $63/share it was rich, but hey the debt was available and investor pool willing.

The excitement ended. Nothing good happened. Expansion? It did not happen. They went from 170 stores to 270, and have been cutting employee count for years now. They've let roughly half their employees go in the last three years out of what was 16,000 full time employees. They are down to 6000. Their employee turnover is high, they switched to having a bunch of ees slide under the 30 hours per week line and it's a rough atmosphere even if you like music. Now lenders are getting antsy.

The company has half of its debt coming up in the next two years and needs to refinance. Its junk status hurts the terms they can get, but this should be doable in the yield chasing atmosphere of today. The timing of the LBO by Bain is the problem. They loaded up on debt to overpay for a retailer as the e-shopping revolution was ongoing, which no one in the entire decision chain thought would be an issue. They thought if they went online they could fix it.

Problem is these retailers do not get that no one cares where they get it from just that they get what they ordered and that they got the best deal. Manufacturers are even figuring this out and looking for direct sales and alternative marketing ideas. GC's buyers thought the name would mean something for purchasing music equipment, especially expensive equipment, but they failed to understand online shopping. They also failed to anticipate the secondary market forming online that would cut into their sales to casual consumers.

This firm will refinance and then cut back their brick and mortar footprint or worse, lenders will see more value in letting them fail and scavenging the wreckage. Does the brand have cache? Does it matter? At this point with low interest rates, GC will most likely get that refinancing with a promise of a new management team (would be 4th CEO in as many years) that will cut back even more employees to keep those debt coupon payments flowing to the creditors.

This is just delaying the inevitable though. Maybe the eventual retail fight is Amazon vs. Walmart with no one left. Wholesalers and retailers alike will get squeezed to nothing, shedding even more jobs in our economy, so where does it end? Do we get the fully automated luxury communism with a UBI? They'll make it universal basic consumption though so you have to spend the money they hand you to keep their game going.

Maybe the future is a bit more like The Diamond Age and you'll see the 3D printing, automated products of the future but the hand crafted, artisanal products will be luxury items. Services would follow a similar path, but maybe indentured servitude will make a comeback for the promise of a safe life in a big home. Whatever the future, it is hard to see big, but niche retailers like Guitar Center existing in it.

Sunday, June 25, 2017

Social Matter - America’s No-Fly Zone Doctrine To Protect Rebel Groups Is Starting To Shake

New essay up at Social Matter. We know the routine USG likes to use for regime change in the 21st century. It's nothing new. It is actually old and dates back to the Nixon administration. It is a perversion of a Nixon idea that was meant to protect our imperial vassals. I even point to how one can interpret Lend-Lease with the Soviets as a proto-regime change routine that resembles what we do now.

Friday, June 23, 2017

Ossoff's Loss + SM Review-Preview 95

The Democrats ginned their side up for a special election in a congressional seat they thought they could flip and lost. They didn't just lose but they lost monumentally when you consider the money they spent. Margin-wise this was a roughly 4 point win. Emotionally, this was a huge letdown for the Left. Big Picture: it means nothing. Nothing changes.

For the GOP, if anything, it means the GOP needs to give in and become the populist party that Trump campaigned on, which should open doors in states that they will want to control after the 2018 elections. It also means they should throw some kibble their base's way.

For Nate Silver, it means he needs to confess that he is a fraud. The man only made his name with political predictions because Team Obama fed him their internal data. They wanted him pushing the hype. They used him to manipulate the polling in '08 and '12 just like a basketball coach works the referees. Silver should retire now with his bags of Disney money.

For the Left, it shows how idiotic they are. Frank Luntz explained in a tweet that Ossoff spent $40 million and received fewer votes than the Democrat who ran in November received who spent $1,000. As I tweeted, it shows a problem for the Left and why they are really desperate for the Beige Bernie. How many Obamas are out there is a problem. Ossoff couldn't even vote in the district he was running in, so this was a carpetbagger. It raises questions, and these are serious as they point to problems in central control.

Where was the eloquent black male to send down to be an equal carpetbagger?
Did the Left really think a SoyBoy would win in Georgia?
Are there really no blacks to parachute down and drum up an extra percent or two in black turnout?
Do the whites on the Left have a clue how quickly they will be pushed out?
Is the Left serious in thinking they've played nice, been centrist and taken the high road? (Yes)
Again, is the cupboard really that empty for non-Asian minorities that can run for office?

The votes will be there. The Left is a headless horseman, so all they need is to find a candidate, preferably a non-Asian minority, heterosexual male candidate, to sing the Bernie line and it's clear sailings. Then because there is no elasticity in voters anymore because it is all racial, friction and conflict will come.

Still, this is a lesson in the thirst the Left has to always win non-stop despite winning culturally left and right. There has been a consistent poly push now for a while, with the NY Times really pushing it hard, and no pushback from outlets. Despite seeing the culture erode, and the borders remain open in the West despite now near daily attacks in Europe, they need even silly little congressional special election wins. Ossoff collected 7,000 donations from donors in California compared to only 800 in Georgia. He spent $40 million, $23 million which was spent by his campaign directly.

This is all wasted energy. This is wasted money. This is wasted time. The Left's policies are broken, their false opposition is broken, their claptrap is broken (science continues to break it in new spots), and the world just is not agreeing with them. Yet, they are entrenched in institutions. Build new ones, burn the old ones and starve them to death in  masturbatory solitude in coffin apartments with their cats in those cities that they love to love.

---------------

Last week I wrote about the need to take the cartels on, and that we need to end the imperial wars of choice and face the real battle on our border and in the failed state south of us. Weimerica Weekly covered the magic mix that makes a mass shooting a media event and I opened with some talk about Reviewbrah.

This week's essay will cover something I've been churning in my head for a bit, and Weimerica Weekly will tackle the most Weimerican of women in the land: Lena Dunham.

Thursday, June 22, 2017

WW1 - Trench Barber

 
 
Not dated but identified as a French trench barber. Official title? No, just a brother in the trench helping another out. Small moments of humanity to break up the weekly grind that is remembering the Great War.

Wednesday, June 21, 2017

Whatever Happened To The University of Phoenix?

We see phenomena pop up, burn brightly and then disappear. People like to point to this in business and laugh over Pets.com and the like, but those groups are memorable because of the lunacy involved. It is common to see giant phenoms explode in size, overreach, and then be sliced back in scale to a long term natural size. Capital demands it, so capital can skew institutions but also reveal their flaws.

Look at the fate of the University of Phoenix (UP). After taking the for-profit university model to a nationwide network that became an SNL punchline, UP's parent company saw the stock zoom to nearly triple digits. It now has gone private at a staggeringly low price of $10/share. Revenue is still a concern due to cratering student enrollment. The problem going forward is enrollment, but this did not purely go private due to a reorganization push.

When UP's parent firm went public, it was all fun and games as money poured in to catch that sweet secular boom in college enrollment. UP used a great valiant pitch to normies to justify its existence, "Using da Internetz to make college accessible for all" while behaving like a boiler room for real estate or penny stock sales. Their boiler room tactics were applied to potential students.

They compensated their enrollers on how many people they sucked into UP. Once enrolled, they would say how much a student qualified for loans without matching it up to what they actually needed for that semester or their course load. This was all just using the students as a conduit for UP to suck off the government teat. Walmart and McDonald's use the EBT underclass as nationwide conduit for a transfer of wealth. UP was doing the very same but with nondischargeable debt. It is far more devious than Walmart of MickeyDs because of this.

UP's trajectory actually revealed the con of all of education as it stands today. Criticism of UP was they were not totally honest with students about courses, about the education process, about debt and about their potential job prospects. These criticisms can be leveled at traditional universities but no one did so because the media-academia complex is a satanic union. One criticism of UP was that they did not care about graduation or completion rates. Check the graduation rates of community colleges, HBCUs and even second tier state schools. It's similar.

The problem for UP was that they threatened the traditional system, which right now outside of STEM is nothing but certificates to get white collar jobs. The good life as the Last Psych would put it was all college was resting its hat on, and that my friends is a slender reed. Whether UP was being devious or not, it was only a matter of time before the media would attack for-profit universities, for regulatory regimes to start pressing them and for universities to offer the same online experience, albeit at a much more expensive price tag.

This privatization is more to avoid the rules and regulations that come with being a publicly traded firm. It will also take the firm out of the media spotlight as well. As far as a turnaround, UP has already laid off half of its staff. Cost cutting has been going into effect already, so now it is adjusting the firm to a lower enrollment that is not reliant on getting the absolute fringe marginal student. UP will exist and continue but in a smaller form with less visibility. They need to retrench and forget that marginal student that is just the next body in the door.

They will leave that student to the government protected university cartel with its media salesmen. C'mon, don't be a loser, go to university. Don't you want the good life?