Sunday, May 14, 2017

Social Matter - Elites Determine If A Rebellion Becomes A Revolution

New essay up at Social Matter. This essay covers the chatter of potential civil conflict in America or France. Yes, the situation on the ground looks tense. Yes, the security is eroding, but what elites are threatened? This is important, and I use an historical example for showing how rebellions fail and revolutions succeed even when the pieces look nearly the same.

5 comments:

Alexandros HoMegas said...

Do you think BREXIT and Trump Presidency happened because of fractures inside the Anglo-American ruling class?

sykes.1 said...

Peter Turchin also focuses on the competition within the elites. He observes that intra-elite discord is higher today than at any time in our history, including the eve of the civil war.

Stephen said...

Brexit and Trump are a sign that the elite are losing control of the electorate. All lawfare and the demonising of the internet is the Elite fighting back. If populist politicians like Trump mange to assert some authority and get government employees inobedient or fired is when the elite will really feel threatened and the civil war could go from cold to hot.

peterike said...

I totally agree that elites determine a revolution. The French Revolution was the same; at the start, it was backed by a great deal of the wealthy, landowner class, who were acting both as SJWs for the time, as well as many seeking a way to grab more power from the crown and Church. They had an army of press hacks and such doing their legwork, but it was very top down. Until it all got out of control.

The Russian revolution had German-Jewish bankers in New York funneling them money, and so on.

@Sykes

"Peter Turchin also focuses on the competition within the elites. He observes that intra-elite discord is higher today than at any time in our history, including the eve of the civil war."

Where is the intra-elite discord? Other than Trump, a crazy black swan outlier, I don't see any elites on "our side." They still seem pretty well united on Sailer's invade the world, invite the world project, and Globalism Uber Alles.

sykes.1 said...

Dear Peterike: As I read Turchin's analysis, Trump is simply irrelevant. Trump is not part of the elite. He is outside it. He is a response to the fact that there are no elites on our side. However, Turchin's concept of the war within the elite is still valid. Trump and his supporters (like me) are simply not part of the real game.