Wednesday, April 19, 2017

Odd Take On China, Trump + the NORKs

If we rewind time to just after the election, we can see the media getting all flustered by Trump's call to Taiwan and his bombast with regards to China. Less than six months later, and there is chatter about Chinese cooperation and even friendliness with the USG noise around North Korea. Trump's dangling out there positive trade deal outcomes, which is opposite of what he campaigned on but after the Syria missile strike but no ground troops declaration, anything goes.

What's a different way to look at this but not from the American perspective? China's entire 21st century game is managing American decline. They want to use economics to eventually force USG to bow to its desires. It is a long game. China has also been snuggling up with Russia, Iran and others to form a good bloc as a counterweight to USG. it also is selfish because as long as Russia is around, Russia acts as a first meal for USG to swallow and digest before turning to China.

USG has its Red and Blue Empires, and it is obvious Blue Empire has been moving to use China against the Red Empire for years. The Clinton admin kicked over military secrets to the ChiComs, brought them into the WTO, gave them most favored nation trading status and locked China into the mutually assured economic destruction compact that Niall Ferguson calls "Chimerica". Blue thinks it can bide its time and subvert China to eventually get enough elites to call for political liberalization.

China has built up its military but still is a bit of a paper tiger. This is why they are trying to swoop the South China Sea via diplomacy only; they have to. One thing it could do to deflect Blue Empire's advances is cooperate with Red Empire right now. China has to see that the Generals and Red Empire have hitched their wagon to the Trump train. In this moment if Trump is of a different feather than normal politicians, China could create a relationship with Red Empire with cooperation on the NORKs.

The NORKs have nukes. The Clinton admin decided to not use famines as a means to force the NORKs to give up their entire program in exchange for food. The world gave just enough aid to keep the Kims in power. No regime change there. The NORKs are useful in our Godfather Protection Racket as it keeps the Japanese and South Koreans attached to us. 

The opportunity for China is to cooperate with the Red Empire side of USG and take out Kim and end the nuclear program, but install a regime of their making. China keeps its vassal but now one they firmly control. China can use this new state as an experiment to rebuild an entire nation. Ghost cities and spending, plus maybe soem Korean war brides for lonely Chinese men. America gets to puff its chest and say it made the world safer. Red Empire still has an adversary to scare the South Koreans and Japanese with but not a nuclear armed one. 

Suddenly Trump looks like a maestro and has removed the pesky, annoying Kim wart in the Pacific, maintaining the illusion that the Empire is doing fine in Asia. Combine this with any potential detente with Russia, and the madman the media scared America with looks like the global dealmaker that he pitched himself to be.

China makes friends with Red Empire. The Blue Empire dies a little inside realizing that the ChiComs are onto their game 100% and securing sovereignty. This is an odd take but we live in interesting times. Anything is possible.

4 comments:

Mark said...

The further along we progress in this administration the more skeptical I become of the Red and Blue empire narrative. There may be sufficient distinction to draw those poles with respect to normal politics, but from the vantage point of a reactionary it all looks like Purple Empire with a few die-hard Red and Blue purists on the margins.

Anonymous said...

I've been getting fairly black pilled. There's a 4D chess explanation for everything, but Trump has mostly folded to republican establishment agendas, both foreign and domestic. Of his big issues, he's been good but not perfect on immigration and thats about it.

Occam's razor is Trump doesn't care about this stuff as much as the dissident right does. He was a helluva salesman for our ideas, but he was never the perfect vessel to get massive America first policy changes done.

C'est la vie. We'll get a few less immigrants but it seems there's no stopping the runaway train of the American empire at this point.

Alexandros HoMegas said...

Talking about Asia, Netflix recently uploaded a bunch of WWII propaganda docus from the 1940s, all about the war against Japan. It's there something on the timing? I don't believe in coincidences anymore.

Anonymous said...

hey sobl, is there a decent argument that inconsistencies we've seen from campaign Trump vs. president Trump can be well explained by the need to protect the US Dollar?

Immigration he's been on par, and that doesn't effect the dollar much.

But two major Trumpist policy areas are of concern for the USD: Trade and foreign policy. He's done mostly lip service stuff on trade (besides officially ending TPP which was already writhing on the floor dying), and he's hit the gas pedal on the foreign adventurism.

We need to export dollars and point guns at potential threat to the dollar, that's the game.

Basically, a fast implementation of Trump's full campaign agenda leads to the end of the USD as the world's reserve currency. Potentially great in the long term, but would probably result in a vicious economic crash in the short term.

He's probably gone over this with all the important suits and has either decided to make his changes his slower (4d chess view), or he's just saying screw it and will play shepherd for the dollar like all the chodes before him.