Tuesday, February 02, 2016

How Jeb Could Become President

Jeb's dead baby, Jeb's dead! It is still possible for Jeb. Yes, he earned a whopping 2% in Iowa, but he is polling better than other GOP Establishment guys in NH. Rubio is the guy the Establishment donors will rally around (already have), and this has been the entire plan for months since Bush's collapse. Bill Kristol and Company will probably love him, but what if they don't? Could Jeb still become President number 45?

Follow me if you will into a realm of low probability events, but with Jeb Bush marrying a munchkin from Mexico, low probability events have dominated his life. The presidency is still within reach. Pshaw, you say! No, it is you who are wrong. One has to take into account the words of the neocon mandarins as well as America's quirky system. They can rig it however they want. Start thinking like a spiteful GOPe operative or donor.

Jeb's Path

1. Run 3rd party in only one state to win out West: Wyoming, Utah, Idaho. Preferably Utah. Strategically place Jeb as a 3rd party candidate on ballots in swingish states that the Dems have won for years where Donald polls well like MI, PA, MN, etc. That is maybe 6 states total.

2. Only run hard in the one western state. Win that state's electoral votes. Utah is great because the Dems rarely crack 30%, and Trump's support is weaker out west. The Huntsman-Romney crowd could work the machinery to give Jeb a shot. It could be as quirky as Jeb 38%, Donald 35%, Clinton 27%. Just be a 2-3% vote getter in those swing-ish states to secure them for Clinton.

3. Hope neither Trump nor the Democrat wins 270 electoral votes. By pulling Utah and it's 6 electoral votes, you're already crushing the Donald if he just repeats the 2000 W results, and blocking Clinton from 270 as well.
3a. GOPe forces Trump to select a GOPe approved VP like the Establishment did to Reagan with GHWB in '80.

>CONSTITUTIONAL CRISIS is what the media would blare, but they would be WRONG! The founders set up contingencies, and then made tweaks to account for odd outcomes.<

4. With no electoral majority won, Congress selects the President and the Senate selects the VP. It is not a roll call vote for President. It is a vote by state delegation.

5. It is the outgoing Congress that elects the President from the top 3 electoral college vote recipients. GOP controls 33 state house delegations. VP is selected by the Senate from the top 2 electoral collectors.

6. GOPe in Congress selects Jeb. Senate selects the GOPe approved VP that ran with Trump.

This is threading the needle. I know it is. If the GOPe cannot get their pool boy Marco Rubio into the nomination, then they will resort tosomething weird. There is no way the GOPe is going down without some form of a fight. Not a fight against the Left. They would never fight the Left but fighting Trump and change within the party is different. A 3rd party run is a loser, and a definite loser for any who try it with someone who lost their own party's nomination.

Is this the end of the most successful political dynasty in America? No. Jeb is just a loser who ran into an opponent that would pull zero punches and in an election where there is a younger substitute. Fear not Republicans, there will be another Bush running in a decade. That big, cross eyed enchilada will be there. Staring at both of you.


peterike said...

It's all so depressing. Iowa proved that the cucks are thicker on the ground than the corn. What in the name of goodness could a bunch of Iowans see in RUBIO, for the love o' mike? Yet there they were.

Meanwhile, Drudge on the same day reports a story about how meat packers in Iowa deliberately dumped all their white staff for lower cost Mexers and others. And of course it is precisely these well off, no doubt Republican meat producers who are pulling levers for Rubio and Cruz.

If white Americans had a lick of sanity left, Trump would be winning with 99% vote totals.

Portlander said...

ROFLMAO. Thanks for that last paragraph. I needed a unicorn chaser.

Iowa proved that the cucks are thicker on the ground than the corn.

Yeah, well, I've been saying the ballot counting's been rigged for years. Look at Hillary: all but under indictment, and nosing out Bernie in a whiteopia. Something smells like manure, and it's not coming from the barn. How else do you explain it? Rubio couldn't fill a high school gymnasium, and supposedly he is in spitting distance of Trump?

Here's the tell: Trump's one weakness is an orchestrated FUD marketing campaign against him as an outsider with no gov experience. So far, the MSM has been too arrogantly dismissive to do anything with real substance there. So, lacking that, I don't see Trump getting beat at the ballot box unless there is fraud.

Alexandros HoMegas said...

The GOP establishment is behind Rubio, he is their boy, especially now that Jeb support collapsed, but I think they would be happy with Cruz, he is someone that could keep Neconservatism alive for a few more years in Washignton.

You said this before Ryan, the GOP establishment doesn't want Trump because it would re-open the Republican Party to not Necons in positions of powers, they would prefer Hillary winning.

Toddy Cat said...

Actually, Trump has been behind all season in Iowa, he actually finished stronger than anyone would have guessed a month ago. It's the media/cuckservative spin on this that stinks. Iowa Republicans have always been a bunch of squishes, and that hasn't changed. Right now, Trump is leading in NH by twenty points. If he loses there, I'll be concerned. Iowa means pretty much nothing with regard to Trump.

Anonymous said...


Son of Brock Landers said...

Toddy - Correct on NH, SC and super tues states. Iowa is always quirky. Trump will get stabbed in the back some way. This was also proof that he can get 95% of the way there with zero ground game.

Portlander said...

Saw a great one-liner over at Sailer's:

Forget it, Jake. It's Iowa.

Anonymous said...

Hey Ryan, did you read this Chuck Klosterman article from 2007?


He thinks revolution in the US is pretty much impossible, even if a majority of Americans wanted to overthrow the USG the System won't go away.

Portlander said...

I'm not the only one suggesting vote-count fraud in Iowa (as opposed to Cruz' more old-fashioned lying), though Adams is a lot more circumspect about it.

And a slightly less circumspect follow-up today discussing NH.

Heard it here first. :)

sth_txs said...

Trump still did well. Of course, some of us may vote for him on the assumption that he has an ego investment in actually trying to accomplish some of what he says. He is kind of open ended on some of this stuff.

His bad side: I don't want single payer anything or a stronger military and I don't care about whether Iran has a nuke.

Good: kicking out illegals, making friends with Putin just might be a good idea, having allies pay for their defense or pullout.

peterike said...

Good: kicking out illegals, making friends with Putin just might be a good idea, having allies pay for their defense or pullout.

The first item on your list constitutes 15 of the top ten most important things America needs right now. All the rest is noise.

Robert What? said...

Microsoft is busy programming the NH election results as we speak. If they make Trump lose - which I'm certain they will - then yes, Bush is back in the race. Microsoft is just trying to decide whether to make Trump's loss look like a squeaker or a rout.