Tuesday, November 03, 2015

The China Two Child Policy Announcement

China has ended its one child policy, and is moving to a two child policy in March. This will allow married couples to have a second child if they wish. I expected this to be announced as an ace in the hole for the Chinese bureaucrats to spark a baby boom and help reorient their economy. The heavy savings and investment focused economy does need some balance with a healthy consumer sector. What better way to spark a rise in consumption than growing a generation. A key about China is that China is so big that whatever it does affects us all.

Africa is the last region with high, if not absurd, birth rates for such a war torn and impoverished area. UN projections had some folks warning of an African planet by 2100. That depends on all factors staying the same, and no giant World War Three in Africa over natural resources. China ending their one child policy changes that a bit. With China's initial investments in Africa and talk of Africa being their El Dorado, what is to stop China from colonizing Africa? Sorry, who will stop them? What is to stop families from being outside the two child limit if in a colony? Nothing, no one and watch that relaxation of the policy outside China so the Chicoms can export people looking for cheaper areas to live and grow families. If the Chinese do not fall into the weak, European missionary mindset, it will be a Chinese planet by 2100. I can't see perfectly fertile Chinese couples adopting Africans for status points. No one but mentally broken whites is that dumb.

Former Secretary of State candidate for president Hillary Clinton has mentioned China's misogynist domestic policies, and while laughable, one can see where the West will try to subvert them. Did you know how harsh the Chinese are to single moms? I did not, but the BBC informed me on how awful and oppressive they are to single moms. Imagine a nation that tells single moms to pound sand! That BBC article discusses some mechanics and procedures that would not be a bad idea to copy for anyone trying to move reproduction to a k-selection mode or just reduce the number of bastards. It also has some funny lines, as some single Chinese women seem just as deluded and cat lady as American career girls. Tucked in there is also proof that the patriarchy feminists whine about in America is gone.

The Chicoms set up obstacles to bastards being allowed in schools. This is key as without the education track, kids cannot advance. Shhh, but it's the same reason why whites keep their heads down about prog PC control (practice ketman). Bastards do not have the same rights. Therefore, women do not have kids out of wedlock. It seems simple to say that a child who has no investment or protection from the father should not have the same investment and protection from the state that a child with an invested father would have. The BBC calls it pro-patriarchy but we would look at that and say it is pro-civilization. Do not set up bad incentives. It may not be a six figure salary woman who sets her kid up for failure, but if you let her do it, every woman down the chain will do so as well and at far higher frequency. For all the jokes aimed at Vice President Dan Quayle for his comment how Murphy Brown set a bad example, we know twenty-five years later that he was right.

Will the announcement cause a baby boom? It is hard to say because the Chinese have had two generations under the one-child policy. How much cultural knowledge is lost by not having multiple kids? How many people get conditioned that one is enough? If a second child becomes a status object, then sure. Having two sons might be a boon; the old "heir and a spare" idea. This is a long play, and we will not see results for years. The looming issue though is how the sheer number a 1.1 billion baseline population will change the face of the earth by moving from 1 to just 1.5 children per family. Add to that a people that feel their nation is ascending, and 2100 will look like a Han world.

May you live in interesting times.


罗臻 said...

I'm highly skeptical there will be anything but a blip in fertility. If they lifted the ban completely, the rural people (several hundred million peasants) and some religious subgroups such as highly devout Christians would probably have 3, 4, 5+ children. However, the government is still pushing urbanization to grow GDP and fertility rates in cities such as Shanghai converge with East Asia. The most effective propaganda might be to tell all the political and business leaders to have 2 children. Or do a full propaganda push. China was very successful at creating anti-Japan sentiment, creating pro-family sentiment would probably be easier.

PRCD said...

Now that China has experienced a wireless boom and a large increase in wealth and urbanization, I don't think it will be easy to get them off their smart phones and into the bedroom to make babies. Chinese apartments are hopelessly small, the air surrounding them is bad, and - from what I hear - Chinese people aren't having 1 child, let alone 2. Modern consumerism (nihilism) takes a strong antidote and open spaces.

We can compare China to countries in East Asia like South Korea and Japan where TFR is low without fertility restrictions. Their fertility is low even when they move here.