Tuesday, September 22, 2015

Trump Poll Revelation

Vox had a blurb on the post-debate poll that should scare the GOP elite about Trump's support. Vox makes some good points. The poll was followed by more polls that showed the same post-debate shakeout. Trump stayed steady or rose, Fiorina rose but she ate Carson's support, and the Establishment's chosen figures languish in single digits. There is one piece missed, and this also proves the inept analysis of the GOP's pundit class. This Trump phenomenon was being waved off because the GOP pundit class assumed he was a manifestation of the 2012 confused rebel voter bloc. He is not.

If you read the GOP pundits, the Trump phenomenon was framed as this year's Herman Cain. "He'll fade." Back in 2012, establishment anointed Mitt Romney was stuck around 20-25%. He always had a challenger or trailed an oddball with equivalent numbers. The rotating, lead alt-candidate was a weird switch that involved Perry, Cain, Gingrich and Santorum. All of those men enjoyed the hard to quantify but conservative voter bloc support. Some would call it the lower info voter bloc that latches onto a new thing. For all his gaffes, Gov. Perry was the only candidate besides Ron Paul to attack the FED. The GOP punditry thought this was Trump's role. They thought he was securing the oddball, loosely defined vote. This has been proven incorrect.

The guffaws and expectations of his demise would be proven if only the right debate attack was taken. The GOP candidates focused on slamming Trump to dent his support, but it did not happen. Vox is right to point out how 50% of the voters support non-politicians (unconventional politicians seems better), which should be echoing in the Establishment's ears non-stop. The bloc of voters that rotated through men in 2012 seems to be the bloc that pushed Carson and is now split between Carson and Fiorina."But but but she was suppose to eat Trump's poll numbers?!?!?!"

No one wanted to admit immigration is that important. The GOP elite did not want to admit openly that they wanted to sell out their base for open borders, and that Trump knew what a big slice of the base wanted. They cannot call him the crank, loose voter bloc since that bloc seems to be elsewhere. He also has given those voters as us vs. the world feeling, which is a sticky glue for a group. This could be the Grand American Party strategy recommended by others or just an echo of the Perot revolt of 1992. Something feels different about this with open socialist Senator Bernie Sanders beating up on Clinton at the moment.

Trump will most likely fail, but he is not a Cain-like phenomenon. For the GOP race, he sits in the kingmaker seat to either win the nomination or play kingmaker. The GOP's job is to lose closely so nominee Jeb at a brokered convention is a possibility. Even if elected, nothing will change because how is he going to get around the civil service. Maybe he could re-engineer the Obama youth corps and the FEMA camps already built to create a different authority outside of the current civil service for the express purpose of "physically removing" illegals, but I doubt it. It still leaves the press and academia untouched. As we have seen with this current third world invasion of Europe, the press will twist everything to fit their needs.

There is one possible positive outcome. Fragmentation is everywhere. There must be one savvy state official or little congressman with his eyes on a governorship of a red state in flyover land taking notes. Listen to Trump's message: DC is the problem, the system is corrupt, hedge funds rip you off, politicians are all bought, no nation without borders or law enforcement is a nation. Now let's rework it and set it elsewhere and in another time...

Oklahoma, January 2023

"I was sworn in as governor for a second term for the great people of Oklahoma. Some have asked if I was contemplating a run for the presidency. No. No I will not run for president. I refuse to dance at the end of strings for a corrupt system that does not care for my people. As governor I have witnessed the detrimental effect that no borders and no law enforcement has had on my state. I have fought it where I could. At every turn, I was fought by the elite in DC and New York. Those same powers that disregard the effect of illegal immigration and the plight of the little people have been lightning fast to push any deviancy they can dream up on the God fearing Christians of this land. These same powers have hamstrung any entrepreneurial spirit in this nation that did not toe their line and are at fault for the recent reports that Social Security is set for automatic reductions in just 2 years. This is a betrayal of the very contract it made with the people. They betrayed our parents who paid into the system to bail out their big banking friends in New York. This system cannot be removed because of the government dependents those fat cats have as a willing voting bloc. I will not run for president, not just because the system is corrupt and phony. I will not run because this is no longer a nation. As America is no longer a country but an idea, a proposition if you will, we will no longer be a part of such a corrupt, degraded system."
Vox missed one other scary figure beyond the Trump number. The scariest part to the Trump poll numbers should be that the percentage of Republicans who support Trump matches the percentage of all Americans under 30 that support secession.


R. Wilbur said...

Exceptionally hopeful message for this morning.

I can't wait to see what happens with more accurate national polling not restricted to only Republican voters, when Trump starts pulling 10%-15% of Democratic working class / black voters. Unless I'm missing polls that already show this.

Maybe after this failed attempt, Scott Walker becomes one of those secessionist state-level politicians? Guy's got to have a big chip on his shoulder going forward.

Anonymous said...

Well if they figure out that "its immigration, stupid!", then the establishment has an option left: fake it. Get your chosen candidate to talk tough on immigration to steal from Trump's support, then amnesty or whatever if you get elected. Lying is like breathing to these people.

Jeb! has been far too weak and its hilarious they ever thought he could appeal to people. I'm expecting Rubio to the next big push.

Deduction said...

I wrote a huge reply to this. It was well over the maximum. I think I can summarise it.

1. Trump and Corbyn share no policies and have contrasting personalities.

2. Both are wildly successful in running against the media.

3. We live in a victim culture which could also be termed a borderline personality culture or even an emotionally arrested female culture.

4. My Grandma in the 50s would have found a PUA charming, but would have laughed him away.

5. Chicks really do dig the whole PUA thing the days. It works.

6. The media is everyone's parents nowadays. We are raised by it.

7. Narcissists run the media and narcissists create borderlines.

8. Borderlines love tantrums and they love PUAS.

9. Trump and Corbyn's followers are throwing a tantrum by following them, against their parents - the media.

10. Trump is a loud narcissistic PUA. Corbyn is a quiet narcissistic PUA. That is the shared secret of their success. Look at their personal lives!

11. The route to power in a culture of victimhood is game. It will keep your emotionally addicted followers attached you.

12. Not everyone is borderline and some people are just following their real interests. Like public sector unions with Corbyn of immigration restrictionists with Trump. But this is not n the secret of their success.

13. I have a proposal.

Deduction said...

13. To recruit a borderline populace you must be able to truly empathise with them but also to draw them boundaries. So you must be above being affected by the feelings you share with them.

14. Specific personal qualities you need include the ability to make someone laugh where they would normally find extreme offense.

15. You must be a social chameleon and yet with a huge overblown sense of self that means that you are unaffected by the nonsense around you.

16. Probably no one can quite do this.

17. Yet the image, as something to aspire to or be recognised as, is very appealing...especially to the type of people drawn to political power...like Trump.

18. This image must be sold to those with power, they are the most susceptible to its seduction.

19. Once sold, those people will do our job for us.

20. Recruiting and fixing the borderline population is irresistible to that type of person. It also involves overturning the culture of victimhood and all of the destructive impulses of our age.

Mark Minter said...

This is a link from Real Clear Politics for the 2012 Republican delegate count by state and the type of primary: Winner take all, proportional, non-binding caucus, hybrid.

I was actually surprised there are so many proportional primaries. I had some electoral college idea that said winner of the primary got the all the delegates. And that non-binding caucus thing is totally unpredictable. The vote may have nothing to do with how the state convention allocates the delegates. A hybrid primary is where previously unaffiliated voters that have not registered with either party before may designate which primary they wish to vote in (I guess when they pick up the ballot).

So there is enough mystery surrounding all this that even if the voting goes majority trump the fix could be in the works behind closed doors.

I had been thinking that perhaps it was time for writers to begin to go after people at the state levels, to push out cuck governors, to highlight and bring focus to some key congress and senate races. If we begin to single out people, bring our own eye of sauron on them, and change some polling numbers then the fear might spread. In 2012 and 2014, Tea Party with donor money was able to accomplish this. The most notable was Cruz. He beat, in a totally catch up raise, a sitting establishment Republican statewide politician. He forced a runoff and then in an election with less interest than a major primary election, his followers carried the day.

I think we could begin to write on organization and hierarchy of state primary and party systems. I think there is little understanding of how things work at the precinct, county, and state level. It might be as simple as people showing up and asking to be precinct voters or something. But I am sure that the active people in those groups are going to be GOP establishment more than wild eyed alt-right supporters.

It's wild that the alt-right has the front runner in the whole shooting match at this point that is controlling the whole timbre and tone of the election. No telling how far the takeover could go if we put our collective efforts toward it. But now is the time to plant the seeds of it. You can't wait until the week of the primary to call attention.

JCrrck said...

I think this is right. Carson is the fringe guy along with Cruz who seems to maintain 5-8%. The pundits have been terrible. They assume Trump is not a real candidate and then work backward to explain everything that's happened. Classic mistake.
Neocon on the radio this morning seemed to think Fiorina was now the front runner - because it can't be Trump. I guess they think she's in second place but I doubt the polls will show that for long. She's going nowhere. There's nothing to recommend her for the presidency and she comes across to most as unhinged emotionally.
I think Trump is the real deal and will likely win it all. A lot stranger things have happened. The R establishment didn't like Reagan either. To hell with the bs they've been selling us.
(Neocons seem to really like Biden all of a sudden. You'll be seeing more of this, I think.)

Peter Blood said...

GOP delenda est.

Toddy Cat said...

If Neocons like Bill Kristol try a third-party run against Trump, they are going to be shocked at how little of the vote they get in the general election. A third party running on a platform of "Eternal War in the Middle East, Tax Cuts for the Wealthy, and Amnesty" might get 5% of the voters at most, it would destroy the GOP and solidify a new nascent American Nationalist party around Trump, and Trump would still have a pretty good chance of winning. I certainly wouldn't be averse to this outcome, but I can't see it being very good for the Neos...

Portlander said...

The difference between past candidates and Trump is that Trump has the inherent TV ratings and self-financing to get his message out.

With all the other establishment challengers, excepting obviously Perot -- his problem was he was generation ahead of his time -- they could be cut-off from financing and the media, and have their message lost or perverted. Plus they just didn't have Trump's overbearing personality (read PUA game-tactics) to demand to be fairly heard.

T.A.WILSON said...

Good Lord, I'd vote for that projected Oklahoma Governor in a second ... which I suppose means I'd vote for SOBL, in guise? Either way, f*ck yeah.

Anonymous said...

Speaking of Oklahoma, Sen. Coburn is on board with moving the Overton:

"Convention of States Action announces that former Senator Tom Coburn (R-OK) is joining the Convention of States Project as Senior Advisor. Since the 2015 legislative sessions began in January, 25 states have filed their Article V applications to call an amending convention of the states. Senator Coburn’s insight and legislative wisdom will be invaluable to the national effort.

“Our national soul is being corrupted by Washington’s unhindered and unconstitutional overreach,” Senator Coburn said. “Our Founders anticipated the federal government might get out of control at some point, and they gave us a Constitutional mechanism to rein it in – it’s called a Convention of the States, outlined in Article V of the Constitution. Many in Washington have unfortunately forgotten they work for the American people, and the people have begun to mobilize in this effective effort from coast to coast. I’m enthusiastic about the prospects to make this Convention of the States a reality as well as the resonant benefits it will bring to our country.”


Robert What? said...

IMHO, the Republican Establishment would much rather see Hillary elected than Trump. They know that Hillary will keep the taxpayer funded gravy train rolling for all of them. Trump may or may not. That's the real reason both the Republican and Democrat Establishments want him taken out.