Tuesday, April 28, 2015

Financial Blogs Worth Reading

The regime's propaganda is pretty thorough and infiltrates all realms of the land. News, culture, sports and even money. We have a FIRE economy, and if you track things, consumer confidence switched from tracking the unemployment number to tracking the financial markets sometime in the '90s. Managing that focus matters. Where do I go to try to read some reality.

First stop is Zero Hedge. I don't stop there now as much as follow ZH on twitter and then click links that look appealing. Some of their contributors are batshit insane, but some are great. The last four years, they have been more right about the Arab Spring, Syria, ISIS and Ukrainian issues than the mainstream media.

Another good catch all stop is David Stockman's Corner. Stockman is like a leftover of the Old Right that finally had enough with the neocon garbage and now later in life is going scorched earth.

One problem is that bears get so bearish that they just look for whatever things feed into their bias. A good bear who does not do that is Lee Adler. He is a self-proclaimed permabear but he will look at flow data and say, "markets going up" due to the reality of liquidity needing to find somewhere to flow to regardless of value. He has a subscription site, so I check his free stuff; he writes elsewhere as well.

Calculated Risk is fun for charts, but that is all I go to him for now. His heyday of tracking, explaining and digging deep on the housing bubble, the bubble's pop and the bubble's residue is now years in the past. When Tanta died, it was the big change in the blog.

For housing, I check Dr. Housing Bubble. I was an old reader from when he started that blog (and commenter), and the guy is top notch. The California bubble is back, using foreign money to sustain US FIRE elites. Another great way to see how the California bubble restarted is watching Jim the Realtor videos of homes for sale. He is ruthless and offers narration of why people get sucked in to "California". Like Jim, Dr. Housing Bubble ties in societal trends too (Millenial woes and college debt), so he is not just a one trick pony. For one trick, Patrick's step by step by step argument against the real estate industry and buying a home is awesome (especially for blue state residents).

Michael Shedlock (Mish) is a good spot to check out, as he mixes anger with logic and reason in a decent dose so that he sounds like Archie Bunker's son if he went to college but came home every weekend. Years ago, he approached California's fiscal crisis with a knife and ran through their budget just using the health and human services spending to close the budget gap, and then reminded everyone that this was just one piece of their budget.

Bruce Krasting is back, but is off and on now with posting. His analysis of the situation with Social Security is the best out there.

Now and Futures has great charts, trends, quotations and '90s web design. Simple check in as they track a lot of different things and use CPI and some site specific CPI adjustments.

Comerica Economic Insights is about the fairest of the data collectors and bloggers out there. They are not doomers, they are not pollyannas, they just collect the numbers and try to make sense of them. One way of viewing them is the idea that a depression might lower 10-15% of your economic potential, but how much of America does that truly hurt and where does it hurt? Can the economy get by and how does it get by at those levels of recession?

A lot of these writers write on each other's sites because the dissident financial web is excluded from the mainstream organs. You will find people on all spots of the political spectrum from left to right to whatever the anti-authoritarian Tyler crowd is.


Anonymous said...

Do you think this is going to be the Asian Century?

Son of Brock Landers said...

Asia will be where the action is, hot and for money, but I think this is a century of infighting around the globe. De-globalization and a settling of accounts.

PA said...

What can trigger or contribute to deglobalization?

罗臻 said...

Deglobalization: high oil/energy prices that make global supply chains unprofitable

collapse of the American security umbrella (piracy is making a comeback)

rise in protectionism: see Scott Walker

displacement of U.S. dollar: the U.S. needs to run trade deficits of several hundred billion dollars a year to finance a global dollar system. Rising energy production is sending the trade deficit in the wrong direction, which may cause foreign currencies to collapse in value.

if a new currency system is needed, no nation wants to be the reserve currency. any move away from the US dollar as reserve currency is good for the U.S. domestic economy and bad for whoever exports to the U.S.

If there's a new currency system, the US will be able to pursue protectionism without worrying if that would cost the dollar reserve currency status

Laguna Beach Fogey said...

Excellent. ZH was spot on about the recent crisis. Pretty amazing.

Casey Research, Jim Sinclair's Mineset, Credit Bubble Stocks, and Daily Reckoning are good, too.

"The California bubble is back, using foreign money to sustain US FIRE elites."

Yes. The bottom was in mid-2012. It's shot up since then, and then slowed. A lot of it was driven by Chinese buyers, and to a lesser extent Middle Easterners and Russians. The RE brokers and analysts I know in OC tell me the Chinese buyers have stepped back.

Laguna Beach Fogey said...

Investor's Business Daily (IBD) online edition has been very sound on recent events, including immigration, would you believe it, but I don't know if they run a blog as such.

nikcrit said...

rise in protectionism: see Scott Walker

He'll drop his recent pro-protectionist ruse in a second as soon as his pro-immigrationist plutocrats cool on his candidacy http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-02-17/scott-walker-is-king-of-kochworld

Walker will cave on his anti-immigration stance; already the koch bros. backed off their initial endorsement of him ----- but i can't beieve they're not savvy enough to forge a bit of primary rope-a-dope (e.g., pro-limited immigration and protectionism of wages) for the primaries, before he becomes a good lapdog and sucks up to the Koch bros. pro-peonage labor politics.

We need a Pat Buchanana/Bernie Sanders ticket!!

Portlander said...

Though I don't care so much for his style, I like Angry Karl's substance.

I'd also call out Charles H. Smith by name. Yes, he's a regular at ZH, and I get the vibe he's a social lib, but he is dead-on spelling out what a disaster the FIRE economy is for the rest of the country. I think that's the reason I've never seen him mentioned outside of the ZH ghetto. He's social lib alienates one potential benefactor and his take-down of the FIRE looting of the middle class alienates the other.

Finally, but not least is Credit Bubble stocks. He doesn't post often, but he's very thorough.

Anonymous said...

Another good one is the weblog of Charles Hugh Smith.

And for some positive contrast: Grey Enlightenment

Rollory said...

I used to be a fan of Angry Karl, but his style has so infected all of his substance it's not possible to separate the two anymore. He writes in a complete disconnect from what is actually happening, in social terms - whenever he starts going on about "AMERICAN PEOPLE ARE YOU GOING TO STAND FOR THIS SHIT, I CALL ON YOU TO STOP IT, RIGHT NOW, TODAY" - well that's all nice and stuff but the fact is "this shit" has happened for very good reasons, continues to happen for very good reasons, and just expecting people to magically reverse course is like expecting a rock to stop falling halfway down the cliff.

He has absolutely no comprehension of how human beings actually think, and that gets in the way of everything else he says and does, because his basic premises there are false, and you can't build a sound policy on false premises.

I will add that he is also entirely capable of being dishonest with himself and/or his audience if it is to his financial benefit, which kind of explodes his whole selling point as compared to anybody else. Specifically, his "technical analysis" is, mathematically, no more than voodoo, luck, and pattern fitting; and his arguments about people being morally obligated to look at his paid advertising are 1) just wrong, 2) in total defiance of what people will actually put up with.

I read his site occasionally still, but I make a point of doing it with Tor with adblock and refreshblock installed. Just to piss him off, if he can notice it.