Monday, March 16, 2015

Iran's Amazing Work

When writing yesterday on the weird, perfect window for Israel to strike Iran that is right now, I tipped my hat to Iran's work on the international stage. While I do not support their goals, I have praised the weird and masterful job the Iranians have pulled manipulating the good old USG. They have spent over 35 years on rogue nation footing, 15 years on an axis of evil and countless years demonized as the Middle East baddie #1, yet they are on the doorstep to a nuclear agreement that looks to be in their favor. I do think they have a nuclear program that has a goal of weapons. Sorry if it were just about energy, they would come clean and use only thorium. Part of the American problem is geopolitics, part is domestic politics and part is the likely capabilities of Iran's program now. Still, what a job by the Iranians.

America's Middle East strategy is what exactly? Anyone have an idea? Is it to reshape the map entirely? Are we trying to help our long time allies? is it just about pipelines and the petrodollar? I do not think anyone could say right now. Even more pathetic, we seem to be playing up to the Shia and disrespecting our Sunni allies. We have made our Zionist and petrodollar imperial bed, and we must lie in it. This outreach to Iran might make sense if we did not know our two biggest allies in the region, Israel and the Saudis, are incredibly mad and very attractive potential clients for Russia and China. Is USG trying to snag Iran as a blue empire client but forgetting the years they have been working with Russia and China? Does it come down to dragging a new big piece into the dollar system? Difference between Iran and the US, their mullahs run the show and just interchange front men. Our system has the State Dept at war with the Pentagon with their respective blue and red empires, and the party who sits in the White House makes a difference.

Our domestic politics plays into their hands. We have a lame duck president, looking for any item to tack onto his legacy. USG just reached out to the Castros. Because our political situation is so broken, bought and dysfunctional, focus and effort that could be spent on anything domestically is not going to happen as everything is dead on arrival. Obama and his cronies need this more than the Iranians do. The Iranians have been describing his team as desperate to get a deal done. This is despite Iranians having war games where they attack large naval vessels. This is a problem of limited term, democratic representative government. Short termism.

One thing I have found interesting recently is the weird turn of events where the left is treating this possible deal like the greatest thing in the history of negotiations that they will accept no matter what. The "#47Traitors" hashtag that was either organic or astroturf is comical to watch. It reveals the behavior on both sides have devolved to simple tribal affiliation. This is the same left that in 2002-2003 when Bush and company got the Iraq war going were crying, "Go after Iran, not Iraq", and crying that the Iranians had an active nuclear program unlike Saddam. The left spouting off on the rather weird GOP letter to Iran gives the Iranians cover they could never have expected looking at American opinion polls re: Iran since 2000. What a gift to the Iranian regime. What an indictment of our system.

These weak negotiations and the amazing work by the Iranians in the face of everything is incredible. Looking at the Wisconsin Project's data, Iran has kept capabilities at a level where they can assemble an actual bomb in short order but have not actually made a bomb. Smart play. The Wisconsin Project was not founded by an Israeli boot licker. These negotiations and agreements after the failed green revolution are more to make a situation as best as possible for the reality of Iran's capabilities. The Iranian nuke program is a fait accompli that the USG is trying to sell as palatable for the American public. Iran has played the hard to get hot chick for so long that they have fended off previous calls for bombing them whether American or Israeli. It looks like it will work for them. I just hope for the interests of America that the hard to get pretty girl at the bar is not just the work of smoke and club lighting.


Anonymous said...

I agree that Iran has played this game very well. But I would also argue that America is playing a weak hand due to multiple factors.

Nuclear weapon technology is over 70 years old. The cat is out of the bag or the horse has left the barn. N. Korea and Pakistan have nukes, two backward shitholes, and we did not attack or invade them.

Israeli-firster Joshua Muravchik penned a column for the Wash Post this weekend calling for America to bomb Iran to thwart their Nuke program. Muravchik even suggested that America must bomb Iran every few years so that whenever Iran rebuilds, we just blow it up again (as the Israelis do every 2-3 years in Gaza/Lebanon. It's referred to as "mowing the lawn").

Unless we are prepared for an invasion and occupation of Iran, or of perpetually "mowing the lawn," Iran's quest for a weapon will become reality.

Containment will be back.

Mandos said...

Nice post. I appreciate your blog. There is no doubt Iran has played its hand very well.

Still, I wonder how much its diplomatic success simply owes to the surge in politically correct discourse that rose to new heights as an answer to the 2008 crisis, and appeared as a diplomatic necessity after the Arab uprisings as far as Islam is concerned.

Ten years back it was ok to talk about the mollahs' fundamentalist islam as evil. No longer today. Made Iran's status more or less switch from rogue to diversity. It has had no small impact in the state of things today imho.

eah said...

One thing I have found interesting recently is the weird turn of events where the left is treating this possible deal like the greatest thing in the history of negotiations...

Don't they regard everything Obama does that way? Here they probably also expect a deal will somehow be ex post facto justification for the (absurd) Nobel Peace prize -- Obama supporters are still probably a little red-faced about that.

intuitivereason said...

No one 'just uses Thorium', and Thorium on its own isn't a nuclear fuel. Thorium is transmuted to Uranium-233 in order to achieve fission. While the -233 cycle produces less waste than the -238 or Pu-238 cycles, its not up and running anywhere today, and hasn't been since 1972. Its a future tech, and though many are on the path to it (India in a big way) no one is there yet. To suggest that Iran 'just use Thorium' is… underinformed.

Its a side issue. Keep up the good work.

Camlost said...

Our "president" attended a madrasa as a child.

Suburban_elk said...

Iran is the symbol and point of contention.

Between what exactly? East and West?

You end up supporting Iran because the alternatives are hegemony.


Good layman's summary.

Son of Brock Landers said...

If USG thinks they can juggle Iran, kea and Israel, they are smoking meth. One will defect so Iran better be worth it, but that's even if Iran slides over to become a client.

PA said...

One wonders if USG's risk analysis included an assessment of Core Americans' expected active loyalty to the regime, in an event of a hot war.

Phillyastro said...

If Iran can get nukes, then any country should be able to obtain them. We can pay off the debt selling nukes to Bhutan, the Vatican, and Barbados.

Mlaurel said...

I am just about to come out with a piece congratulating Iran on their deftness in taking Iraq.

They really have played this whole scenario expertly, and patiently. A lot of things in Iran might be dysfunctional but their top down strategy guys are quite fabulous.

And it's not like the stakes aren't high. The entire country is on the line, and they can still pull this stuff off. Iranian middle Eastern dominance soon, perhaps?