Tuesday, March 03, 2015

Clue: Nemtsov Edition

The latest Russian intrigue was the assassination of Russian dissident Boris Nemtsov. Nemtsov was killed on the streets of Moscow near the Kremlin. This created great made for tv tableau with the Kremlin in the distance and a dead body laying on the ground. The murder in a public location created the bonus public memorial with public shows of emotion and remembrance. The Western media jumped on this immediately. It's another Kirov! Putin is Stalin! Kirov was the Soviet version of "where were you when JFK was killed?" as Kirov, who was extremely popular and very handsome and charismatic (unlike Uncle Joe) was gunned down at work. Kirov's death set off the Great Purge, and Stalin eliminated the last of his rivals for power. Secretary of State John Kerry called for a thorough investigation in Russia, which is funny considering it is a simple murder. Vlad Putin vowed to get to the bottom of this. This is not the Middle East, but who really wants to get to the bottom of this? Let's play Clue! 
1. It was Putin in Russia with a hit squad 

Support: Eliminates a rival. Shows his strength. Muah-ah-ah. Along a different path, what is Putin did call the hit on Nemtsov but to frame the Americans? Set up a bunch of patsies, hit a rival and then arrest patsies, reveal it was American meddling, and then the world is wondering how much more insane the USG is growing? Building a separate world system? This becomes a marketing moment. 


Drawbacks: Nemtsov's party had 5% favorability in a recent poll. Not 50%, 5%; what a rival. Every Russian ex-pat in the American press will write essays denouncing Vlad. Wait that's already happened since 2012. This fuels opposition, which was having a march 48 hours later. Russians killed a defector with an umbrella decades ago, and have been accused of polonium poising, killing people at their apartments, etc. during Putin's rule. Public execution, leaving behind shell casings" in front of CCTV cameras seems amateur. 


2. It was the USG to frame up Putin 

Support: Suddenly the opposition protest has a martyr. Nemtsov was not even useful for USG purposes anymore, as his time had passed. This protest has been planned for months and calls for 100,000 were made by every dissident. Khodorkovsky mentioned this as he supported these marches as Navalny marches in just about every interview he did in the winter. You know how many Russians were aware of the planned march? 18%. The financial attack on Russia failed, and it failed to give the population a reason to protest and the US media a way to spin protests as organic and because of the currency crisis. America, including George Soros, has had an eye on destabilizing their Russian rival. The US ambassador to Russia who made an appearance at the public memorial is the same US ambassador who was present in Ukraine during their putsch, and looky-loo, he was also the US ambassador to Georgia during the Georgian brouhaha of 2008. Not just Tefft, but Anatoly Chubais visited the memorial. Chubais was the harvard and US Treasury inside man who allowed us to economically rape Russia in the '90s. Chubais was rewarded for his good work with a position on the Council on Foreign Relations. Ahem, he sits there under his '90s US Treasury buddy Robert Rubin. 


Drawbacks: If this were traced back to the US, it would give America the golden shovel for digging a further hole geopolitically. China would be aware considering the Hong Kong protests, and possibly hug Russia closer. 


3. It was a move by Ukrainians to frame up Putin 


Support: See above for why the US would do it, but add in the recent military and diplomatic whupping they have received. They need to keep American involvement in their sink into the abyss.

 
Drawbacks: If traced back to them, they lose all support from Western nations except maybe the NY Times readership. The Ukranians cannot even field an army, so pulling off a hit seems like a reach. 


4. It was elements within the Russian power hierarchy itching to depose Putin 


Support: If traced back to Russians and men part of the security forces, it would be easy to frame up Putin and turn public opinion on him as well as demonize him further internationally. Sacrifice some pawns to take down Putin, and set the pawns' families up. Putin's network and party are firmly in power, but could a man within the network unseat him but keep the web intact? Possible. Stalin had a supreme cult of personality, but Beria and Kruschev both thought they could take over and continue the system after his death. 
Drawback: If traced back to top, they would be dealt with, and who then would try something like this in the future? 


5. It was Russian Muslims paid by the Saudis to frame up Putin 


Support: Muslim identification crosses national boundaries. The Saudis have threatened Russia before and are engaged in oil wars right now with them over Syria. Saudis would actually do something for USG instead of always pushing to "fight the Iranians to the last American". 


Drawbacks: The operation seemed smooth for a Muslim group, so it would be Iranians instead of normal idiot jihadis. Jihadis LOVE to take credit for anything, and the entire world would doubt they'd keep their mouths shut about this. 


6. It was an element of Mossad to frame up Putin 


Support: This was pretty smooth, and they are incredibly gifted at their work. There are enough Israelis of Russian extraction to allow blending in and development of such an operation. Might be the same wing of the Israeli government that is anti-Netanyahu and linked closer with their American cousins. How much coordination between CIA-Mossad-US State Department? 


Drawbacks: Do they really have a horse in this? Aren't things warming a bit between Israel and Russia? 


7. Nemtsov had enemies who took him out and it was a convenient timing 


Support: What figure at the top of any political system is not a bit corrupt and has not made enemies? This was a smooth operation but not much different than a mob hit in execution. Current geopolitical tension can hide you as a suspect. Mob capos can rub out the shooters and eliminate all traces, which makes things harder for the authorities. The authorities need to solve it to erase the cloud of suspicion like how the West tried to pin the shot down Malaysian airliner on Russia for months. 


Drawbacks: None. Even if caught, you could claim political involvement, which smears Putin's regime. They'll find patsies to help you out. 

This is not Kirov. Putin is not Stalin, but if that is the new analogy, then maybe Hitler has become too passe. Cui bono? Nothing for Putin unless he's trying to frame the Americans. While the upside is high for the Americans, the drawback of exposure would be huge, as would be the danger to any Russian involved with the shooting. Ukrainians, Saudis, and Russian power players all have motivations but they all come with crushing downsides (except the Saudis because of Uncle Sam). Nemtsov had enemies. Could be as simple as that with perfect timing for an international spectacle. We will probably not find out who ordered the shooting and even if we did, who are we going to believe... Putin or America's media? 

Order I'm buying (most likely to least likely): 2, 7, 4, 1, 5, 3, 6 

10 comments:

nikcrit said...

There were a bunch of Soviet dissident/muckrakers/celebrity/etc.. assassinations during the Gorbachev-to-Yeltsin transition era; the former Wash-Post reporter and current New Yorker editor David Remnick wrote some great chronicle-type books of the period: "Resurrection" and "Lennin's Tomb." Illuminating and often funny in capturing how quickly the Glasnost era brought in a sort-of tepid and superficial pop-cult-gloss and materialistic impulse to Soviet citizenry life.....Good stuff IMO

Anonymous said...

"Drawbacks: Do they really have a horse in this? Aren't things warming a bit between Israel and Russia?"

How about Russian support for Iran and Syria?

nikcrit said...

The following passage from Lenin's Tomb detials the exploits of some Russian celeb named Kashpirofsky,' a sort-of Soviet Deepak Chopra-type esoteric huckster....

https://books.google.com/books?id=dEvoAgAAQBAJ&printsec=frontcover&dq=lenin%27s+tomb,+remnick&hl=en&sa=X&ei=9vH1VL37NI2lyASNv4CgCg&ved=0CB4Q6AEwAA#v=onepage&q=alger%20hiss&f=false

Anonymous said...

Nemtsov had multiple wives/girlfriends - four I believe. Lots of weird arrangements, had them all together at dinners etc. Sounds like exactly the kind of guy to piss someone off who'd have a major personal vendetta against him. Hard to rule anything out once you know that, the detective would probably start by interviewing all the people he knew. But I agree #2 seems plausible.

Portlander said...

We will probably not find out who ordered the shooting

I am hopeful yet. All that State Dept email stored unencrypted and on an unclassified public email server!

Sheesh, who's was the net admin? Where are the tape back-ups stored?

It's comical, I would have never thought of knocking over some ISP closet because who would be stupid enough to use such a thing for classified govt email?

It's also delicious this is coming out at the same time Petraeus is pleading guilty to miss-handling classified info. Shouldn't a 3rd party email server be de-facto miss-handling as well?

Will be very interesting to watch whether Progs circle the wagons for her over this. Will tell us all we need to know for 2016.

Anonymous said...

It could have easily been a joint operation between Israel and various USA forces, because Israel pulls the strings and the USA's security state dances along.

T.A.WILSON said...

Utterly OT: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1Qgk5LtELIE

sykes.1 said...

I would add Russian mobsters. Nemtsov was part of Yeltsin's administration and participated in the looting, which is the source of his wealth. Apparently, he still has some mobster connections, and there might have been a dispute over some criminal activity.

I think a mob hit is by far the most likely.

Anonymous said...

I love redneck political analytics.

In Russia people get paid or brainwashed to tell "That's not Putin". Here it's free of charge :)

All stay the same.

"Trotsky was a victim of its own self-intrigue, betrayal, betrayal." J.Stalin, 1940
http://www.alexanderyakovlev.org/fond/issues-doc/1015995

Dan said...

What about ordinary nationalist Russian Putin fanbois unaffiliated with Putin?

Russian nationalism is very high right now, and perhaps some old military types are just mad at someone who openly insults the man they love. Putin definitely has a lot of muscular fans who will do things like go to war against the Ukraine all on their own in support of Mother Russia.