Monday, October 13, 2014

What do we know? What do we think? What can we prove? Ebola Edition

"What do we know? What do we think? What can we prove?" That is a great scene in And the Band Played On as Dr. Curran  tries to stop the hysterics, the guesswork and the fear within the CDC about the early days of HIV-AIDS (GRIDS) and focus on reality. We are in a similar spot here with ebola. I'm going to say ebola is worse as it kills quickly, and there is no therapeutic wonder drugs like HIV-AIDS has currently. Even in its peak for killing, once a person caught AIDS, the average patient's life span was three years. Ebola seems to bring death three days after you show symptoms. We also exist in an even less trustworthy era. Recall that decades ago, governments did try to shut down bathhouses that were prime spreading areas, whereas now the government will not perform the simple feat of stopping flights from infected nations, quarantining passengers who travel through infected nations and mandatory quarantines for anyone who travels to those nations. Once again, what do we know, what do we think, what can we prove?

What do we know?

Ebola is spreading at an exponential rate in the infected nations.
Ebola is spread through body fluids.
Health care infrastructure was already weak in those nations before ebola, and is significantly weaker today. There were 51 doctors in all of Liberia (pop. 4 million) in 2010. 51. That is less than the doctors in Belfast, Maine (pop. 8,000).

Kill rate is only 50%, not the normal 80% like other outbreaks and this is in nations with terrible health care systems.
Locals are acting less than stellar. Aid workers were hacked to death by one set one locals. A special ebola health station was looted by locals. handling of bodies after death has been poor.
Nigeria did have a few infected cases, but did contain the infections. They have had 20 cases and 8 deaths.
Africans will try to come to the West for treatment in desperate attempts to save themselves without regard for spreading the disease to anyone else.

Ebola can remain in the semen of survivors for a few months, which could cause later flare ups. Guess the condoms stop HIV talk in Africa did not work, maybe condoms stop ebola will.
American officials are not closing the door on Africans. Planes will continue to come in with no quarantining.
The media has already framed quarantining and stopping flights as racist and xenophobic. Multiculturalism > safety.
Health workers are contracting ebola despite wearing hazmat suits and following protocols. This was true in Africa and is true now in Spain and the US.
This is the largest ebola outbreak in history, and was already the largest months ago.
If you sneeze and yell out "I have ebola" on a plane, no one is taking chances and the hazmat suited men will come in to remove you immediately.
Humans are still animals that can talk and walk upright. Humans will do stupid things.

What do we think?

That something is different with this ebola outbreak.
That unreported cases are 2-5 times higher than official numbers for infected nations.
That ebola's transmission mechanism is different this time and possibly airborne.
That the doctors are not using full disclosure with the reason medical professionals are catching it despite being suited up.
That possibly ebola's quick burn out rate prevented us from having a huge body of knowledge about this virus.
African corruption and political problems exacerbated the outbreak initially as the WHO staffs in those nations were political appointees.
Infected nations will get more desperate as the body count rises and demand much more from an all too compliant Western power structure (both left and right).

Our officials are not taking every precaution and leaving the door open for more spread through carelessness.
The current ruling class wants immigration reform, which in reality involves amnesty for illegals and quick steps to citizenship for current legals.
The ruling class, with media cover, will down play this as long as possible (see enterovirus D68 right now) to provide political cover to allow for an executive amnesty by Obama in case nothing comes out of Congress.

What can we prove?

That Western leadership will put open borders ideology over basic safety. We have an ocean to separate and save us, but our leaders are allowing modern technology, planes, to carry this disease to our shores earlier than ever needed. Besides that, we can prove nothing. This is all guess work for us little people. Even the facts, as reported, are conflicting. How can a hospital follow all protocols yet staff gets infected? Why do they say all protocols are followed but then say they were not followed once an infected nurse pops up? This actually adds to the fear. Straight answers and full disclosure is needed. Liberals always stress the need for more education and awareness. This is actually a situation where more awareness, education and information is needed. Our psychopathic elite will need to swallow their pride though and shut down the flights, impose travel bans and put safety first... but first, they must be threatened by it.

I'm not optimistic.

* That is my attempt at a creative way to do a links post.


PRCD said...

Neither am I.

Anonymous said...

what can you tell us about enterovirus?

first hit i get on google ( is that this mystery virus, which hit in mid-August 2014, after a wave of illegal immigration, is "probably false" ias far as cause by the kids.

Anonymous said...

I don't think it's unreasonable to suspect immigrant children have a major role in the enterovirus outbreaks around the country. See this study:

Recall footage on the news of unaccompanied immigrant kids living and sleeping almost stacked on top of each other in the facilities that were detaining them. Perfect conditions for a respiratory virus to spread. And then they dispersed these kids across the US.

GFC said...

Snopes is a very unreliable source concerning anything that might have a political angle (such as D68). The site's proprietors are committed leftists.

Portlander said...

I've been reading "Hot Zone" about an Ebola outbreak in a monkey-import quarantine house outside D.C. back in 1988.

The virus is incredibly infectious, but the saving grace is one needs to be in contact with contaminated bodily fluids to catch it. In western countries with functioning sewers and single-family housing, stranger's bodily fluids are easily avoided.

However, for healthcare workers, they are going to be up to their armpits in the stuff cleaning up after infected patients vomiting and shitting blood everywhere. It's a numbers game for them. A 1% risk factor every time you suit-up times 3 shifts a day times 2 weeks that each patient is in ICU adds up to noticeable infection rates among nurses, doctors, and orderlies.

That it hangs around in semen for months afterward wasn't mentioned in the book and hadn't occurred to me, but makes sense given what is mentioned in the book: that Ebola has a scary-as-hell propensity to target the gonads. A black and morbidly swollen scrotum is one of it's notorious effects. Maybe if word gets out about that complication people will get a little bit more animated about calling their Congressrat and demanding closing of the borders?

Jamie NZ said...

Scene from Platoon

{Chaos and confusion reigns, fear panic and death is near, the fog of war}

Sgt. Barnes: [To CDC/Barack Hussein Obama]

You ignorant asshole!!!
What the fuck coordinates you giving???
You wasted a lot of people up there with your fucked-up pandemic response!!!

You know that???
You know that???

....Ah, shit!!!

Sgt. Barnes: Y'all take a good look at this lump of shit. Remember what it looks like.
You fuck up in a pandemic and I goddamn guarantee you a trip out of the bush in a body bag!!!
Out here, assholes, you keep your shit wired tight at all times!!!

[To 'the keep calm crowd']

Sgt. Barnes: And that goes for you, shit-for-brains. You don't run your mouth on no fucking ebola-pandemic!!!

[To CDC/US Govt]

Sgt. Barnes: And the next son of a bitch I catch copping "Z"s in the bush, I'm personally gonna take an interest in seeing him suffer.

I shit you not....

Sherman, tag em and bag em

Jamie said...