Monday, September 08, 2014

BRICs Separate World System

The New World Order. What a fantastic phrase dreamed up by Rockefeller or whatever fellow Bildeberger attendee. It rolls off the tongue. We have lived in it for decades now. It looks a bit old, gray, dangerous and fragile. American military and economic power kept it together whether first phase gold linked or second phase oil linked. Whether you lean on the Strauss and Howe Generations theory, Kondratiev wave cycles, Empire models or other long term historical views, the post-WW2 world order is long in the tooth. The established order looks weaker for a rival. The talk of the BRICs building a new monetary system, and by doing so, building an anti-dollar alliance is also dancing around the idea of the BRICs anchoring a separate world system.

Speeches, monetary moves and non-financial events point to small steps towards a separate set up. The pitch of "end US aggression" is a great one. After witnessing the destruction of random Middle East nations, little clients would have reason to be wary of US patronage. How many of them have suffered coups, invasions, bombing and the humming of drones in the US guided world order? They will trade one big brother for another, but it just has to appear better to make the move. The big players have their particular friction points, but one can check the points where they come together. It might be better to not view the BRICs as anchors and more like tent-poles for their regions.

India and Russia participated in joint military exercises recently. India is now interested in Russian missile systems. Wonder when the American media will ask what foe is the cause for these big nations are buying equipment from each other and being friendly? India and Russia had an interesting tie during the Cold War as India led the non-aligned movement. As America played up to China to exploit the Sino-Soviet split, we made friends with Pakistan and China in opposition to India. President Bush's administration made overtures to and improved relations with India, yet the Obama administration has not handled that relationship as well. Joint military exercises do not mean everything, but China and Russia just had a giant military exercise; the largest ever to be exact. Maybe no one nation can become the hyperpower or global hegemon, but a collection of big boys can work together.

The BRICs have already discussed setting up their own internet pathways, which must only be bumped up the priority list with the Snowden revelations. China is going for an operating system. These are all small steps, but they start to add up to a picture of a world system outside of American reach or offering a choice of contact with America. Could simply be coincidence or joint moves to help buying power, but India, Russia, Brazil and China are all slated to expand their nuclear energy capabilities. Meanwhile, "green" America and Europe will shutter plants or maintain rather than expand the best non-CO2 baseline source for electricity. Of the nuclear plants under construction, sixty-five percent are in BRICS nations and Argentina, with the rest of the world the remainder. It is not just the building of plants but sharing of technical expertise between these nations.


If one wanted to play the long term game and view the Russians-Chinese as an aligned axis against the USG system from the start of Mao's victory, maybe there is something to Golitsyn's theory of the Russians and Chinese faking a split to weaken America, faking the end of Communism, isolating America diplomatically and then aligning nationalist leaders to end American hegemony. Much of what Golitsyn wrote in 1984 has come to pass, from the end of Communism, to the phony liberalization to the rise of nationalist Russian behavior with KGB leadership. That might give the KGB too much credit, but one of their own is in charge of Russia today.

Whether you dislike the domestic USG situation or the foreign USG situation, it is wise to pay attention to how these other players are moving the pieces across the board. Important pieces of the USG system, Germany, Saudi Arabia and Israel, are all players that could switch and by doing so inspire others to switch. Starting a separate or new world system is hard, and can fail completely. These are not changes that come quickly, and there are many pieces to assemble. Our media will not talk about it because it would upset the public. The media already has a hard enough job getting Americans excited to bomb ISIS and the Russians in Ukraine while simultaneously avoiding the fact that without US meddling, Ukraine would be peaceful right now and ISIS would not have built up its base in war torn Syria. The American brand is pretty toxic, and not even electing the light giver changed things. If anything, electing world citizen, President Obama revealed to the rest of the world that whether blue America or Red America, the bombs will be dropped or the money will be stopped if you do not play along with Uncle Sam.

10 comments:

Anonymous said...

This is the first I've heard of Golitsyn, but he sounds very intriguing.

It's quite strange how "vast conspiracies" seem to be - well, hidden in plain sight.

From the Frankfort school onward . . .

Frightening times we live in.

Anonymous said...

Question:

Assuming this is inevitable in the general manner you've outlined, it will obviously be very bad for certain industries and economic players that have sunk costs in the old system.

But where will the profit / opportunity be for those STILL within the USD-osphere (and with no chance of immediate exit) should this system come about?

What industries might open up for a young man circa 2025 to make a fortune with a bit of foreknowledge?

Excepting a nuclear holocaust, of course.

nikcrit said...

"wonder when the American media will ask what foe is the cause for these big nations are buying equipment from each other and being friendly? India and Russia had an interesting tie during the Cold War as India led the non-aligned movement. As America played up to China to exploit the Sino-Soviet split, we made friends with Pakistan and China in opposition to India. "

In grad school, many of my friends who were in finance, MBA's or some other business-eco sort of program told me that one of the best investment-info sites to peruse was jane.com; their bottom line: munition sales and movements are the best indicators of the realpolitik behind public political media and diplomacy, and thus ultimately, often vital market trends.

Anonymous said...

The BRICS will not matter once interest rates go up.

nikcrit said...

correction:
My earlier comment in this thread should've referenced JANES.COM ---- not Jane, singular, as that's friggin' fashion-plate site..

Anonymous said...

Putin's power comes from the KGB/FSB old boys and the oil, gas, media and defense corporations they've taken control of.

“The very idea that the Soviet Union was defeated is disinformation in itself... During the Soviet Union, the KGB was a state within the state. Now the KGB is the state.”
- Ion Pacepa, the highest-ranking intelligence officer to ever defect from the Soviet bloc.

eah said...

The "BRICs" Are Uninvestable

eah said...

...a faltering economy and mounting frustration over poor public services are dimming the outlook for Brazil's "new middle class."

eah said...

China asserts paternal rights over Hong Kong in democracy clash

“The fact that you are allowed to stay alive, already shows the country's inclusiveness," he answered, according to two people in the room who declined to be named.

Just to show what kind of people you are dealing with -- the Chinese.

Anonymous said...

"The American brand is pretty toxic, and not even electing the light giver changed things. If anything, electing world citizen, President Obama revealed to the rest of the world that whether blue America or Red America, the bombs will be dropped or the money will be stopped if you do not play along with Uncle Sam."

I'm not an alt-right person at all, but there is an excellent clarity to this judgement, and I have to say I admire the authors eloquence, if not his political beliefs.

I pose this question to the alt right: if you want an ethno-state so much, why not do what the Amish people do - live in homogenous communities? Because you're never going to change the whole country.