Tuesday, June 03, 2014

The Democratic Invisible Primary

Just like the GOP, the Democrats have their invisible primary. The Democrats right now are a bit different from the GOP, in that they have one candidate and then a bunch of losers. While the GOP establishment, party leadership and strategy are jokes, they do have several competent governors that could make a run (Christie, Perry, Jindal, Walker). The Democrats have Hillary Clinton, who is a symbol and pop star type more than an executive. There really is no one else, which is why their invisible primary season has been quieter. Still it is good to review.

She Can Only Lose It, Again

Hillary Clinton - They just have to keep her alive. Keep in mind, this is the fourth straight presidential election where people wonder if she is going to run. She has been protecting her flank by saying ridiculous voting right's stuff to blacks like 1955 Alabama is coming back to prevent a repeat of 2008. Hillary is a terrible campaigner, so she will have to deal a knockout blow quickly if someone like the Wildcard or Flirt is in the race.

Roadkill Division

Vice President Biden - Courting the Jews. While Clinton was recovering from her "concussion" in spring 2013, Biden spoke before AIPAC (Never AGAIN!) and in front of another Jewish group praised Jewish culture for immense contributions. Without them, we wouldn't have gay marriage he said. Biden has dreamed of the presidency since he came to Washington. This is why he chose VP over Secretary of State in 2008. He knows that part of beating Hillary is having the Jews behind you. Just ask Obama. I do not see him cobbling together the Jewish-black-under 30s coalition that Obama road to battle Hillary.

Governor Cuomo - Current white governor of New York going after guns and being friendly with gays. He also knifed public unions. I do not think it happens for him, which is a shame. He seems more competent than every other option here.

Governor O'Malley - Pushed through gay marriage in 2012. That's it. This guy is a clown.
There are no other governor types, and the party's former governors just out of the political process are far too centrist for the primary voters. Ahem, they are also white men like Cuomo and O'Malley.

The Wildcard
Mayor Bloomberg - If Hillary bows out, I think he wins it. Even if she ran against him, Bloomberg is polished enough, he could take her. Do not count him out. He wants it so badly. He has been everywhere in the invisible primary season. Bloomberg also just blasted Harvard and other universities for being repressive of conservative ideas. He will appear normal to many voters. Watch his moves right after the midterms.

The Flirt
Sen. Warren - Vagina substitute for Clinton. The OWS sympathizer. Coming out against the banks. Will have short record, but a record of being hard charging for consumers and little guys. Harvard Law and a vagina but none of Clinton's baggage. What more does the cathedral need? Think of a debate before a Super Tuesday where she hammers at Hilary for being in the pocket of TBTF and Bill's administration allowing deregulation non-stop while she throws a reference to occupy or getting railroaded out of the consumer watchdog spot for being too sympathetic to little guys and an enemy of the banks? The base will eat it up. In all seriousness, would you put up with her for four years if she destroyed the TBTF banks? ... You're still thinking about it.

The VP Stakes
The Favorite - Senator Tim Kaine. White guy from Virginia. Swing state is what will matter for Clinton. She may worry about having the entire ticket be too odd, but if she does not...

The Ambiguously Gay One - Senator Cory Booker. He is a sharp, charismatic 40-something who just hasn't found the right girl. This spot is if Clinton fears she needs the black vote desperately, but what if the ignorant base voters force him to come out and this backfires on Clinton as blacks stay home rather than support a gay? Booker lost Newark's mayor race the first time.

The Hispanic - Julian Castro - Yes, the minority puppetry is this transparent. An interesting thing is happening with Castro right at the moment. The Obama administration is trying to move him to head up HUD. Lawyer, ceremonial mayor, and now HUD head, wow, what is up with that? Why not run for office in Texas if he is an awesome candidate? The progressive system wants Castro to dig into the Hispanic vote. Problem is, Castro is just a ceremonial mayor of San Antonio. His move to HUD reveals more about Texas than about the left. They need him in a spot that they can then layer gravitas on him, but he cannot win a state wide election. If they thought he had a shot in Texas state wide, he would have run for Congress this year to set up for '16/'18 statewide or versus Cornyn for Senate this year or Cruz in '16 or Abbott in '18. Texas' GOP bench is deep, and George P. Bush will be land commissioner with a future eye on any statewide opening. Selecting Castro for VP in 2016 would be example #5,327 of the decline in the administration of our republic. Not speaking Spanish is the icing on the cake as they will actually be selecting a guy for his skin tone and last name.

This is the circus part because the real work is done behind the scenes. Why else would the progressives control the media, academia and the civil service and leave political positions up in the people's hands?


Anonymous said...

Hey, give O'Malley credit, like Cuomo, in addition to gay marriage, he also rammed through some extra-loopy gun control. Real achievement in Maryland, you know, and it took courage to stand up to the NRA. /s/

I don't ultimately disagree that it's Hillary's to lose, but if she craps out early, maybe you should think (as much as it makes me want to vomit to say this) about Terry McAuliffe. There are probably a few other Democratic governors with access to a lot of cash, impeccable cultural Marxist credentials and ability to pose as competent managers. Mark Dayton, maybe (this generation's Jerry Brown), or for an extreme long shot due to size and non-swing nature of state (plus Biden sucking away all media oxygen), Jack Markell.

Portlander said...

would you put up with her for four years if she destroyed the TBTF banks

Heck, I'd put up with a Barnum de Blasio circus for four years if it were a guarantee to destroy TBTF.

BTW, nice one on the stroke call. Pretty telling, IMO, when an anonymous blogger in fly-over country is better able to connect the dots and tell the truth than the paid & fully networked-in professionals in NYC-WDC corridor.

Also, I don't see how she could last 8 years. Look at any before and after picks for a president. I have no idea why, they are insulated by so many layers of rank and file lifers in the bureaucracy, but it beats the hell out of them. Someone like Hillary going in beat to hell, there's no way. She'll be phoning it in before the first mid-terms.

Biff said...

Hillary has some juice with her Sisterhood of the Travelling Pantsuits and with unions. She stays bought. If I was a Baby Boomer feminist, I'd vote my own. If I was old-school FDR Democrat union man -lots still exist, more clout than media flash, but they clout a lot- I'd recognize a fellow operator who stays bought. If I was buying the next President I'd want someone with a record of staying bought. She'll pass the money primary. Hillary may lose, but she's formidable.

peterike said...

but what if the ignorant base voters force him to come out and this backfires on Clinton as blacks stay home rather than support a gay?

Blacks voted for Obama despite widespread and long running rumors in the black community that Obama is gay. Blackness totally trumps anything else. If Booker remains ambiguously gay, he will lose zero votes as a result. If he did come out openly as gay, he might lose a few percent. He'd have to come out as gay and simultaneously turn very flaming to affect black turnout much. And coming out with a white boyfriend -- which is probably what he would have -- would be a bad political move.

The bigger question is that having already had the black President, is it really that exciting to vote for black VP? The buzz is a lot smaller. So Clinton/Booker still gets 98% of the black vote, but it's 98% of fewer people than if Booker were the top of the ticket.

Mike said...

Nice breakdown as usual, SOBL.

A few thoughts:

1) Bloomberg would be a credible opponent to HRC. His only negative is his age and that's neutralized considering the opposition. And I think he'd win the general election easy.

2) Would the GOP rather see HRC get the nod or someone else?

3) Your point about Booker is interesting and got me thinking: if he were to be outed, would the gains they'd receive from the SWPL/centrist crowd be more than enough to offset the black votes lost? My hunch is they would. In any event, it'd be a gutsy choice.

Son of Brock Landers said...

Thanks everyone for comments.

1. Former Gov. Schwietzer from Montana is the type of guy the Dems should nominate for competency. Gov. Mark Dayton is not going to get the push despite being more competent than HRC.

2. Booker already has the SWPL/gay vote locked up. SWPLs love him. Coming out would test peterike's theory of blacks not caring once the play is set.Newark blacks did not trust him at all and made up tons of rumors cause they couldn't say "he's a homo".

3. TBTF needs to be broken up. I think Warren would do it, which is why I think she will be VP at best for a non-HRC candidate.

4. I could see Bloomberg breaking up TBTF in a "Nixon goes to China" moment. I think he will announce something after the midterms. Being outside the Obama admin is a huge plus.

peterike said...

Bloomberg is an interesting idea, but isn't he somewhat Romney redux? The uber-competent wealthy technocrat?

But he's not a Mormon, and if he represents the first credible Jewish Presidential candidate, the MSM might rally around him, or at least not put him in their 24x7 gun sights.

And if Bloomy spouts anti-bank rhetoric, the chatter in the bankster executive offices might just be wink-wink, you know he won't do anything bad for the Jews. Let him fool the goy with his anti-bank talk. C'mon, we were all invited to his Seder last year!

As for Booker in Newark: yes, given a choice between two blacks, blacks will vote for the less gay one. But between white and black, the black wins.

Warren is a bit of a dope and I think a bit of a phony. I'm not at all convinced she's sincere.

Portlander said...

I think Warren is sincere recognizing TBTF are parasites killing the host, but 1) I don't think she's tough enough to really clean house or 2) recognize more government is the cause rather than the solution.

I see her shepherding some 10,000 page omnibus bill that breaks up JPM and BAC like ATT was broke-up into a bunch of baby bells, but is that really going to change anything? The US still pays the most for the worst telecom in developed world. Ditto healthcare. Ditto you-name-it, except of course housing, which TBTF is doing their absolute damnest to fix that glaring outlier.

Bloomberg I believe is tough enough, but I don't see him taking on that mantle. What's his motivation? Has he ever voiced reproach or animus towards TBTF or Wall St. before? If so, I missed it.