Sunday, November 03, 2013

Conspiracy Theory - Healthcare.gov's Spambot Backfire

Years of dying for health care. Pent up demand. Three years of preparation and set up. Six Americans enrolled in Obamacare programs on October 1st. Some reports are that enrollments are up to 100 a day, which is several hundred thousand per day under what is needed. Per the Wall Street Journal, 82% of Kentucky enrollees are just signing up for Medicaid (87% of enrollees in Washington and 64% in New York). This program is a failure already, and this is absolutely pathetic given the three year lead time. At the start of October, the press noted the rush of visitors to healthcare.gov of 4.7 million on day one. Crashing the site as well as glitches in programming have made it a swampland of dysfunction, but here's my theory on this being an unintended consequence of the Obama team's spambot scam.

1. The whole point was to force the remaining 20, 30 or 40 million uninsured Americans into health plans. Some chose not to have medical insurance while others wanted it. A major argument was "why destroy overhaul our insurance market for a vague number of people to get insurance who may not want it?" With three years lead time and massive media exposure, 4.7 million people visited the site and hit refresh so often that it crashed the site. Wait, aren't there 20-40 million without insurance? That's all you got was 4.7 million to come? Team Obama needed big numbers on day one so the press could report the huge site traffic.

2. Besides the technical glitch, which would cause any private firm to fire multiple people, enrollments are weak. If they are keeping enrollment numbers hidden, then they are BAD. Any good number would be touted by every media outlet. A bunch of the uninsured don't feel the need for coverage or are complete morons and won't sign up. If they enrolled six people on day one of the roll out with pent up demand and advertising, then the six enrolled out of 4.7 million unique visits is a statistical impossibility. Medical enrollers would expect 75% and above for enrollment figures, and even life and disability insurance providers expect 25% participation.

3. Team Obama knew enrollment in year one would be low since they rigged the fine tax if you did not comply. The first couple of years' fines are low, then they jump to much higher levels capped at 2% of total income. This is a point the insurance companies idiotically conceded to the bureaucrats that hurt them. The insurance companies need everyone enrolled to make this work for them or else they have a sicker, older risk pool. Young people not enrolled helps government tax receipts and sabotages the program.

This is why Team Obama is confident glitches will be fixed. The rush of traffic is a spambot scam to artificially boost activity to drive good press to make it look like the program is a success. Slow enrollment figures could be brushed off as delayed due to complex enrolling procedures, but the site visits could be spun by the media as huge demand. The enrollments will continue to be awful. Enrollments will have a high percentage of new Medicaid participants, which will reveal the program to be another redistribution scheme. Those reports will not be hidden. Added to them are the reports of individuals dropped by insurance carriers (post-ACA regulation change, HA the progs outsmarted the insurance corps).

This is abominable. Twenty years ago, there would be political consequences for this. Not anymore. In 1984, Ronald Reagan won Massachusetts by 3% and New York by 8%, and would be three steps to the right of the current GOP. He'd have a hard time being approved by the media as a national candidate today. As right as the conservatives may be about all of this Obamacare, economy, Keystone Pipeline, etc. , the number of inelastic voters is above the tolerable threshold for functioning government. The dysfunction is only going to get worse.

2 comments:

sth_txs said...

A number of those who may not have insurance are also part of the 'unbanked' masses.

I can't remember the article right now, but one things I believe is to force more people into the banking system, especially those who deal mostly in cash.

You can still get an IRS tax refund by check, but not much else. Just another scam to herd the sheeple.

Son of Brock Landers said...

The Feds recently started sending tax refunds by Debit Card, which has created an entirely new form of ID theft and fraud, which has caused more surveillance of mailing by the post office. The debit card refund was for the unbanked and unwashed masses.