Wednesday, September 25, 2013

GOP Invisible Primary Stock Update

As politics chews up more of people's time, it would only be natural that the old process of presidential elections would become longer and more obvious. With a presidential election less than twelve months ago, it seems odd that so many politicians are jostling for position and grandstanding but this is the invisible primary season. Do not believe the online dictionary that says the invisible primary starts when a candidate announces but before primaries. The invisible primary season starts once the elected officials take office prior to the next presidential election. For us, the invisible primary season is '13-'14, while the real primary fighting kicks off in '15. In our hyper-political age, it started right after the election (as Rubio showed). Let us take a look at the contenders.

Before we review the GOP, it is fair to say the Democrats have Hillary Clinton and then roadkill. It is hers for the taking if she can last. This means that she will have been a potential POTUS candidate in the media's whispers in '04, '08, '12 and '16. She at least knows how Obama won and seeks to pander to it: black turnout. If you are wondering how Obama was made presidential timber, the media manufactured the wood. A part time law school lecturer with no acomplishments was allowed to be in a survey for the 100 greatest Americans of all time by a major media outlet. That was just one of many glowing media puff pieces. Interesting invisible primary moves by Obama and HRC in '05-'06 were their nay votes during the Roberts and Alito nominations for the Supreme Court. Got to prove your further left than the norm. The drawn out Democrat primary process of 2007-2008 was awful and changed how the primary season is handled. It was so long and painful that Americans forget how the 2000 and 2004 primary seasons truly began and ended within four months. It further affected the invisible primary season by forcing folks to start earlier like our first candidate.

Senator Marco Rubio - Stock Not Listed Anymore
This fool read the NY Times the week after the election and jumped on the suggestion that the GOP needed some Latino outreach. His invisible primary started week one after Romney's loss. He made his invisible primary issue immigration without checking any opinion polls on how voters felt about it, especially his party's voters. He is now soiled and dirty from working with Schumer and Reid without accomplishing anything except destroying his chances at the nomination. He now has to hope someone picks him for a VP for the Latino vote of Florida. Had he stayed quiet and bandwagoned on any other issue, (banks, Obamacare, domestic spying) he'd be Golden Boy.

Former Governor Jeb Bush - Stock Down
Go home. Stop it. Along with a connected friend, I assume Jeb is just floating trial balloons on the Bush name for his son's run in the 2020s. He butted in with immigration along with Rubio, and it did not help with the grassroots. Still, his access to huge donors is unmatched. In a weird way, Rubio's fall helps Jeb as they are seen as an either/or swich with regards to running.

Governor Chris Christie - Stock Slightly Down
After the Hurricane Sandy Obama lovefest, I thought it was over for him. He has laid low and plotted his re-election campaign this year as his launching pad during the invisible primary. He did side with the establishment on the domestic spying issue, and with guns, he's sketchy. He is a good campaign trail guy. He has had a TIME magazine cover so he's cathedral approved. He will debate well, and had he run in 2012,would have buried Obama. If he cracks 60% in NJ, watch the working class white vote percentage. The higher that is, the more likely he flips Midwest battleground states and the party nominates him.

Governor Bobby Jindal - Stock Up
Jindal has been using the media well, making moves in his state, and he has been plotting a presidential run since childhood. He's also the youngest guy here, so he can wait. He's a smart, competent guy. In another smart move, he has focused his arguments as him defending his state from DC and Obama. An outsider presentation and position against the Wall St-DC cabal would work for Jindal.

Governor Scott Walker - Stock Up
The guy's signature reform worked for municipal budgets and hurt the school unions (woohoo). Downside for him is that he has to run for re-election in 2010, so he has to focus on Wisconsin before he could roll out with a pet issue. He is a Koch boy for fundraising purposes, plus Tea Party folks like him, and unlike timid establishment guys, he discusses thinking big. He is my dark horse pick. A re-election win and outsider presentation against the Wall St-DC cabal would work.

Governor Rick Perry - Stock Up
He might be entirely done. Yes, he blew a nomination just waiting for him, but he can recover. Reagan mortally wounded Ford in '76 and bounced back to win it all in '80. His problems were back surgery that put him out of commission right after entering and being anti-banker having a minor league team run his major league debut. Texas has been a bright spot in the US economy, and if Christie is the only executive in the mix, Perry could take him on, win South Carolina and then sweep the Midwest and Southern red states while Christie re-enacts McCain in '00. He had a smart message of getting government out of your life. Presenting his stewardship of Texas and boosting the productive economy that "makes" jobs, he could position himself as an outsider against the Wall St-DC cabal would work (shhh, it's a winning formula no one will use but should).

Senator Ted Cruz - Stock Way Up
Cruz is a bit of an opportunist who seemed to search for an invisible primary issue, but unlike dum-dum Rubio, he picked a good one in fighting Obamacare. Cruz also backed Rand Paul on his droning crusade. There is something that his filibuster stunt, like Rand Paul's anti-drone filibuster, shows about him. He knows it is politically useless with how the system works now to filibuster, but it signals to voters, "Hey, I'm not one of those out of touch career guys here. I care!". I'm fighting for you, yeah whatever.

Senator Rand Paul - Stock Way Up
Paul inherits his dad's name, built in fandom, and the libertarian flavor. Sen. Paul has consistently voted against the tyranny items like indefinite detention, droning and domestic spying. He also laid out a budget cutting plan that even a 5 year old could understand. Vogue did a puff piece.

If I had to bet right now, I'd say it ends up with Christie as the nominee with Paul as the VP. If Cruz and Paul both run, it is to outlast the other to get the VP selection like what Bachmann tried in '12 for Romney. If one stays out, they had a deal with a specific candidate. (Side note: An HRC strategy guy told me HRC did this with Evan Bayh and Mark Warner in '08, but once they both announced they wouldn't run, she locked in then Gov. of Ohio Strickland. Lesson: Don't Trust a Clinton). Every Senator thinks they can sit in the Oval Office but few make the leap. Senators do not make it to President except in rare occasions like Kennedy buying the election (razor thin '60 win spending ungodly sums of money + Mafia favors) and Obama's catehdral handled, tornado move from state senator to elected POTUS in 4 years. In descending order, I'd predict Christie/Paul, Christie/Cruz, Jindal/Cruz, Jindal/Paul, Walker/Paul, Walker/Cruz, Perry/Paul, and Perry/Rubio (Perry wouldn't pick Cruz). It will be an uphill climb for them, but do not underestimate HRC's ability to screw up elections. The fear all rational Americans should have is if we have reached a point where the takers will vote for their team no mater what to keep the take going. Outside of anyone's control listed here, if the US does have a dollar crisis, it will hurt the Democrats as they hold the White House, and they have chosen not to prosecute the Wall Street banksters.

1 comment:

peterike said...

There's a larger question of whoever the Pubs select, will they have the ability to not only beat the Dem, but beat them by a wide enough margin to overcome the now routine massive Dem vote fraud in key swing states. You have to not only win, you have to win big, beyond the margin of cheating.

Current "stock" also doesn't matter, because however Cathedral blessed a candidate might be now, the minute they lock in the nomination the Cathedral will turn on them all guns blazing, and we'll find out that Chris Christie said "nigger" in 1972 or something. (BTW, Christie is from New Jersey and bound to have serious skeletons in his closet.)

Given the media bias + vote fraud + white race replacement + illegal money raising machine of the Dems, I really don't think a Republican is ever going to get elected President again, outside of some totally unexpected Black Swan scenario.