Monday, August 19, 2013

Chinese Problems

To ward off any accusations that I am too bullish on China's changing role in the world, here are some links about their problems.

Via Zero Hedge:

The economic paradigm of the last 30 years is coming to an end for China. They have never dealt with issues like what they face now. Oh no, what will the new leadership class do!

China is going through a credit crunch. There is both a liquidity problem and a bad loan problem. How the government decides to handle it will have global consequences.They are not alone.

The Chinese bond market is a mess and their banks own two-thirds the market.

Completely sold out ghost cities. This is a problem when you have a country that saves 40-50% of its income but doesn't offer many investment choices. A smart FIRE economy professional would have parachuted into China and suggested they build Health Savings Account programs for workers since the Chinese social safety net is slowly starting to form (note to self: learn Mandarin).

China's Xi goes more Maoist. No democratic reforms. Aw shucks, they don't get to enjoy the sweet smell of democracy that Iraq, Egypt, Zimbabwe and the West luxuriate in daily. (via Walter Russell Mead)

China to end their one child policy (something I predicted to jump start a consumer economy). (via Telegraph)

Unfit military recruits. Can they build their own aircraft carriers and boost their navy? If they focus on cyber war, finances and gold, they may not need to fire a shot.

Bonus Big Monetary Picture Note: Jim Rickards thinks along lines I've cited that China wants to use the SDR to give the yuan a reserve currency role but not the reserve currency pole position.

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