Monday, November 05, 2012

Final 2012 Election Prediction

Just another 48 hours of hearing about the most important election in the history of the world (8th edition). I'm in a deep red state with no pressing local issues (property tax cap was last time), and I am not voting.

The House will remain GOP but they will give back a decent chunk of the seats won in the landslide 2010 Tea Party Wave election.

The Senate will remain under Democrat control. The GOP really fumbled here. Part of this will come down to turnout, but some is self inflicted. The GOP needed a better gameplan for some states (Florida/Virginia), better candidates in others, and an actual gold watch, succession plan for Dick Lugar in Indiana.

The Biggie - President

Signs for Obama - His secure count starts at 237 (PA + MI), because even if you're campaigning in the last week in a state doesn't make it a toss up, it's just a soft lean. Great ground game in Ohio + Nevada. Entire media-academia cathedral complex on his side. The race issue shaming some whites into voting for him. Nate Silver, NY Times paid Jewish Obama fan boi, has been claiming an Obana victory in 2012 even when Obama's approval ratings were in the 30s. My White House source is predicting 294 electoral votes for O. He's a Dem, but I trust his instincts.

Signs for Romney - Polls seem to show him tied or with a small lead even when oversampled to D+11 (latest CNN poll). He has a huge lead with independents. Crowd test: his crowds have become larger than the venues can hold whereas Obama's crowds are smaller. Dem enthusiasm nowhere close to 2008. Obama's been shifting resources out of some swing states to show up in states no Republican has won in over 20 years. Weirdest of all, Dems are confident that Obama will win but they've given up all talk of taking the House.

Prediction - Obama gets 271 electoral votes and loses the popular vote. I can't shake this feeling that Obama is going to win Ohio by the slimmest of margins due to the ground game (as well as Nevada like Reid did).

I see a 'grand bargain' fiscal deal done within 6 months of the next term. King puppet master for Wall St and the CFR, Robert Rubin, is calling for it, Obama himself even said if he is re-elected, he will cut a deal early with a GOP congress. If the financial plutocrats that hold the puppet strings want a fiscal austerity deal, they will not want public riots or civil unrest. Any 'grand bargain' is going to create nationwide changes to SS and Medicare/Medicaid. The better face to prevent riots is Obama. Black leaders have said int he last 2 years that if there was any other POTUS, they'd be marching on DC (like that would help). True, real cuts are coming, and a beige face as the figurehead delivering that news will keep the underclass fixed to their entertainment + food and off the streets. This outcome is bad for America as Benghazi will get attention and cripple a 2nd term lame duck POTUS when we do not need one. The euro sovereign crisis will flare up, and we do not need an incompetent and crippled president at the helm.

Even if Romney wins, how happy is the cathedral? They get the most liberal Republican in America in the last 20 years at the helm of the presidency that they still can attack for being a conservative. I grew up in New England, and saw Romney's senate campaign. I lived in Massachusetts when Romney was governor. He loves being in charge, he is competent, he loves power, and he does love America. I've always viewed him as a GOP version of Bill Clinton who can govern and will compromise to win later. His best achievements in Mass were speeding along the Big Dig, fixing the tunnel that had problems and loose concrete slabs that killed from above, and removing the brother of Whitey Bulger from the Mass political scene. Only he could do it because he didn't owe Bulger anything. I do think he'd be better than Obama. I also think there are 20 politicians in America that would be better presidents than Obama.

In my best Nate Silver impersonation, I do realize that a wild variety of outcomes could happen. I do not assign an 80% chance of my prediction, but it's what I think most likely to happen. My prediction continuum would be Obama at 288 to Romney at 295 (all swing states except NV). The Obama 288 + Romney 295 are lower prob, with my higher prob sets at O 271, Romney 277 + Romney 285. If Romney or Obama crack 300, I will be genuinely surprised.

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