Tuesday, November 06, 2012

A Baker's Dozen Thoughts on the 2012 Election

Now as the big daddy result has been called, some thoughts....

1. We're fucked. We were screwed either way as too much shit is baked into the cake to turn us around, but the more troubling thing is the margin of Obama's win (not to mention the entire campaign strategy + media manipulation). Romney was a flawed candidate, but this was all wrapped up by 11:30pm. Might need to move my timetable for US disintegration to mid 2020s.

2. Romney had poor campaign managers throughout his effort, did not attack enough in the 2nd debate and did not differentiate himself enough in certain regards. He's a nice guy. He has done a lot for millions (yes, millions) of people whether as governor, CEO, Utah Olympic savior, volunteer, missionary, etc. He was a perfect candidate for pre-2000 America. I'll go out on a limb and say had he declared his residency always in Michigan, he'd be president right now. He'd never have had to pretend to be liberal for years in Mass, and he'd have been a 2 term Gov from a state that he could swing. Small things have huge impacts, and I bet decades ago, he never saw that one coming back to haunt him.

3. You believe in the Cathedral? They were going to win either way, but they have their man still in charge for a potential Kennedy/Scalia death. Look at their ages, then sweat the next 4 years if you trust in the Supreme Court slowing decay down.

4. You think Wall St is holding the strings? I do. Their man is still in charge, as will be Geithner and Bernanke. As I typed on twitter, regardless of campaign donations, if the market stays up before Nov 6th, they want Obama, if it tanks before Nov 6th, they want Romney. As Zero Hedge tweeted tonight, why do you think Goldman Sachs did not change their 1250 S&P end of '12 forecast? Buying cheap puts might be the way to go in consumer discretionary equities.

5. GOP candidates learned not to mention rape ever unless it involves sentencing men for raping women foreverrrrr. Akin and Mourdock lost winnable races due to comments involving rape. When you are in the outer party, you must be very very careful.

6. The wicked rigth wing House remains in the GOP's hands. The White House remains with a polar opposite liberal President that won't work with them. The American voters returned both pieces. I am sure US voters are dumb, but what might it say about the real differences of our elected officials?

7. Gay Marriage passed in 4 states. Lots of straights going to be talking to their one gay friend tomorrow. My home state goes from being called Nazis 3 years ago when they rejected it to being called angels this year for pasing it. Such is the way of party politics America.

8. The currency/bond crisis is coming. Buy gold, buy oil equities, and not a bad idea to buy cartons of cigs for trading.

9. How far does the Benghazi thing go? The media doesn't have to protect Obama anymore. They love to tear down those who they build up, and quite honestly, they may need to turn on him quickly if they want to offer up Hil-dawg as the '16 nominee. She'll need to be shielded.

10. Prediction: Jeb Bush enters field in '16, so does Jindahl, maybe Walker, and Rubio. No Christie. My guess is GOP voters support whomever they think is tough + angry enough. No more playing nice. If trends of awfulness continue, a currency crisis happens, and the GOP can't win, pack it up. You'll hear loud secession calls.

11. Marijuana legal now in Colorado and Washington. How will the Feds react? Irony would be Obama busting up those states as he did to California medical dispensaries.

12. Chris Christie has no national ticket future with the GOP, but let's consider what he's staring at. He is in a state with a horrible fiscal situation, and they just got hammered by a huge storm. The only tourist attraction just got destroyed. NJ will be a ward of the US Federal Government. He knew this. He was looking out for NJ. For all the negative feelings about pols doing what is best only for their careers, here is a guy who put NJ first.

13. We get closer to Brave New World. We also get closer to fully understanding why humans are the only animal to submit to slavery. Seems we want a gilded cage more than the freedom to fail.

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