Wednesday, June 22, 2011

The Anti-Incumbency Cycle

It is going to happen again, and it will repeat 2 years later, and then again in 2016. The voters of America will throw out incumbents to replace them with other puppets of their donors (big money). This started in 2006. Dems replaced the GOP in Congress. They didn't do much of anything. Voters then replaced the party in power of the White House in 2008. 'Stuff' was done, which did not change much. The Dems were jerks about things, using a bit of procedural trickery to pass a health care bill no one knew the contents of, and were epicly booted out of office in 2010. The losses in Congress do not paint the full story as the Dems had 'retirements' of famous names (Dodd and Bayh) that were forced. Not much is getting done again because of gridlock and a President not smart enough to follow the Clinton-Reagan playbook and work with the other party in an effort to coopt their moves. I predict an Obama defeat in 2012. Don't worry Dems, I predict that POTUS to lose in 2016 unless he takes on the big banks (fat chance). We have entered the anti-incumbency cycle and will not break it until we recognize the problem of the system.

In my large metro city (1 mil pop), there was a property tax revision in 2007 to cover rising union costs. It happened and people got pissed off. The 2 term mayor who enjoyed popularity and had a voter party registration advantage was thrown out of office. Was it his fault? Not really, but he was the scapegoat for the system that through the years had awarded city employees richer and richer benefits. People still don't understand this problem fully despite the police department stating they had to put off buying active cops cars and equipment to put $2 mil in the RETIREE fund. Hello????? I predicted a huge anti-incumbency vibe in our country that would spare no one. It has largely proven correct, and is partly tied to the Tea Party movement which is anti-bailout, anti-crony capitalism. We have non-RINO Republican governors and senators in swing states and deeper blue areas like New England, New Jersey, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Some governors will enact reform which might spare their state carnage and buy them a 2nd term. Will the senators do the same? If not, they will be tossed out at the end of their first terms.

This will continue until the big banks are dealt with, we get serious about government reform, and we are honest about the need to balance the environment with the economy. When that happens, we will have true economic growth, which will give a President or the party in power a breather. I doubt this happening anytime soon as many folks though Obama's short track record was a good thing as he had less time to be corrupted. Wrong. Look at his campaign fundraising and his behavior in office with big business. He had 4 years as a US Senator, 2 of which were spent campaigning for POTUS, and he still was corrupted. When government services, power and control is lessened, businesses will pump less money into it. When the money is removed, the anti-incumbency cycle will end.

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