In the coming hours, we will witness Tim Tebow seal his 2nd Heisman Trophy or fail to perform against Nick Saban's suffocating Bama D. I like watching Tebow play. I love his size and how he looks like a LB or DE taking snaps. It's hysterical to see a guy that big move that well and throw rockets from the pocket. The more I watch him, the lower are his odds of success in the NFL. I have so far been wrong about Matt Ryan, but I feel far more confident in my skepticism of Tebow's skills for the NFL.
In fairness to Tebow, he is not asked to pass a lot, so he can't showcase if he has skills with reading defenses and decision making. When he does have the opportunity, he's been fortunate to throw to wide open receivers or on short WR screen style passes. You don't see him thread the needle much... or face a 3rd and long. I see him in that Vince Young mold of "1 read" and "awkward throwing" project QBs. This is not a guy who could step in year 1 and perform well in the NFL. Add to that his odd running problems. Look at his stats. His ypa are half a yard lower than last season and 1.5 yards lower than his frosh year when he was primarily an extra running back, not a QB. In a spread offense, the QB should be making good reads on when to hand off and when to keep it and averaging more than 3.7 ypa. So is he making bad reads or not running as well? Something is not adding up. If he isn't making good reads on option plays, imagine his reads on passing downs.
Even if a team were to use the pistol or spread like the Chiefs are doing with Tyler Thigpen, I don't know if you could trust Tebow against an NFL defense in passing situations. I've been watching the Chiefs use these wacky formations wondering if they will make a run for Vick when he comes out of jail or draft a guy like Tebow if he comes out. I'd trust a post-prison Vick more than Tebow throwing the ball. I'll be interested to see how Tebow throws, if he has to, versus Bama, and even more interested to see how he works out in private workouts or at the combine.