Sunday, October 14, 2007

NFL Picks week 6

Lack of posts due to busy time at work. Limited now to picking games and random posts.

At thsi point in the season, I start thinking about the early playoff picture and the NFL Draft. The Cowboys, Skins, Packers, and Bucs look good for the playoffs right now. The Pats, Colts, Steelers, Jags look good in the AFC. The other spots are all in the air. All spots are, but by now we can see teams that are starting to create space. As far as the Draft, I am looking at the winless or 1 win teams and wondering who selects Brian Brohm at the top of the draft. If the Saints or Bengals get the top pick, they will not draft him but could pick one of those top D-linemen as both defenses suck. The Jets and Bills have young QBs they feel decent about (Clemons and Edwards). St. Louis has Bulger. Now Miami and Atlanta need a QB. With Petrino in Atlanta, I have a feeling he will end up there.

CHIEFS +3 over Bengals
Sad to see Marvin Lewis unable to scheme a defense to stop anyone. When I think of how many years people cried for him to get a head coaching job, I look on his time at Cincy as an indictment of his abilities. He has skuzzbucket players, and cannot coach up a defense. Looks like his awesome defenses of the past were due to the players.

JAGUARS -7 over Texans
The Jags intrigue me because they are so hot and cold offensively. They can march down the field for 5 drives in a row and then put together 3 straight 3 and out drives. I think they will steamroll bad teams and go .500 vs. good teams.

BROWNS -5 over Dolphins
I am not going with Cleo Lemon on the road. The Browns need to keep losing so their first round pick is higher and higher for Dallas. I'm waiting for Kellen Winslow's breakout game. He's teetering on the edge for an unrealized potential tag from announcers.

Vikings +5 over BEARS
I do not believe in this Bears defense anymore. Football Outsiders wrote an article on how top notch defenses are tough to keep together and to keep performing at their top level for more than 2 years. Chicago is well beyond the 2 year mark, and they need to keep reloading for these injuries and free agency departures (next offseason).

Iggles -4 over JETS
Until the Jets dump Pennington, I am going against them. They need to make this switch now, as they have lost several games and valuable tiebreakers by starting Pennington and watching him lose games.... or better, not win them for the Jets.

RAVENS -10 over Rams
The Rams will not score double digits on the Ravens, and the Ravens should move the ball on the Rams in an easy fashion. I keep waiting for McGahee's big game on the ground for the Ravens. C'mon Willis!

Skins +3 over Packers
I trust this Jason Campbell kid with game managing, but he is sketchy and cannot win games for the Skins yet. Still, I trust the Packers even less. This charade must stop soon.

BUCS -3 over Titans
Home team gets my vote. The Bucs defense is decent, Garcia can make some plays, and Gruden will scheme enough to make Vince Young confused. We're only 4 years away from Vince Young's dogfighting moment. Wait until he doesn't make the playoffs for a few years and is frustrated with the NFL defenses figuring him out & boxing him in.

CARDINALS -5 over Panthers
Vinny Testaverde signed with the Panthers. No bets on him. I like the Cardinals at home. Let's not see them fail me now.

CHARGERS -10 over Raiders
After the beatdown on the Broncos, I think the Chargers can rest a bit easier now knowing their division is so lame. They could conceivably go 5-1 in their division (the 1 loss that stinker vs. KC), and squeeze into the playoffs as the 4 seed. Now a seasoned and grizzly 4 seed, hosting a wild card game, and going into Foxboro angry? Sounds like the perfect matchup for the unstoppable looking Patriots in January.

SAINTS +6 over Seahawks
Desperation game at home. This has to work. Seattle's run game looks awful. Alexander looks slow (he is 30 after all), the line isn't what it was 2 years ago with Hutch, and Mack Strong is out. The window has closed for the Seahawks. They are not going far into the playoffs, even in the weak NFC, even if they make it.

Giants -3.5 over FALCONS
Giants are weak against the pass; Falcons are not good through the air. I like this match up for the Giants offense as well with the missing men on the Falcons' D.

(SIGH)
Patriots -6 over COWBOYS
It pains me to be smart, but no way are the Cowboys beating the Pats unless the starts align. The Cowboys just are not there defensively to stop the Pats. I expect a shootout.

This gets a douchbags label because of 1 group of people: Patriots fans. I like the idea of dominant teams and highly skilled teams. The Pats themselves seem a bit dirty now, but are still hardworking guys. The one thing that prevents the entire nation from looking forward to a 16-0 season from the Patriots: Patriot nation. The Pats fans are the worst group of fans ever. Seriously, ever. Not football smart, arrogant, unappreciative of their team (they booed last week when the Pats had a 3 and out up by 17 points), fair weather, disgruntled Red Sox fans, and mock/hate/identify self by disliking their rivals... even the ones they beat a lot. That last bit is more an extension of the Red Sox fandom. The Pats can't go 16-0 because the nation would probably rise up and nuke Massachusetts.

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