Saturday, September 29, 2007

nfl week 4 picks

Not a lot of commentary here this week with the picks. I've been feeling sick. My posts earlier in the week were crafted over a period of time. They had been brewing for a while. I'm just trying to be completely healthy for next week as I found out that I have no more sick time at work this year. Yup, for some reason they gave me 15 vacation days and 2.5 sick days when I joined them in April. Weird.

BROWNS +4 over Ravens - If Ogden plays for the Ravens, it will improve their entire offense. That and benching McNair. The Jets and the Ravens are stuck in the same qaundry: do you bench the toasted QB for the young gun when the rest of your team might be playoff quality?

Bears -2.5 over LIONS - This is tough because the Bears defense will be missing key players: Harris, Briggs, Brown, Vasher. The switch to Griese will invigorate the entire team.

Packers -1 over VIKINGS - Not sold on this Packers team. They are winning with glue and duct tape. This will be a test as it is a road game. The Vikings D is set up to stop the run, the Packers will not run. That's fine with them because Favre will just throw 50 times.

FALCONS +3 over Texans - I am going to bet against the Texans because Jones and Johnson are out, although the Falcons are missing several guys on defense. Rod Coleman and Babineaux, which is a big part to their attack on Schaub.

Jets -3.5 over BILLS - The Bills can't score. They cannot score. Plus, they are starting Trent Edwards. This is a reason to avoid them. The Jets need to bench Pennington for Clemons.

Raiders +4 over Dolphins - Raiders on the road, enh. Phins are bad as well, but I'm going with Culpepper because Trent Green is done. He is absolutely done. No zip ont he ball, and the defense is full of dinosaurs.

COWBOYS -13 over Rams - The Rams don't have the horses on defense to stop the Boys on offense. They also are missing Steven Jackson, so there goes the run game for balance. Wade Phillips is a bad playoff coach, but I will trust him in the regular season. Very excited by Romo's play versus the Bears defense on the road. One mistake by him but besides that, the offense played spectacular and the defense was not too shabby. Still need Newman back.

Seahawks -3 over 49ERS - I dislike the Hawks team. I dislike them on the road without that crowd of their, the great acoustics in their stadium, and the pumped in crowd noise. I dislike their offense, which has no 'playmaker' on it. I like Shaun Alexander, but they rode him into the ground their Super Bowl year. They gave him the big contract one eyar too late. They could have hade on more year of bonus money off the books had they signed him 4 months earlier.

Bucs +3 over PANTHERS - The NFC South looks awful this year. A few years ago, this division was consistently sending teams to the SB for the NFC. This year they all look weak, even the 3-0 Bucs.

COLTS -9.5 over Broncos - Cutler on the road, nope. Manning is always geared up for the Broncos, always. The one thing he has this year that he has not had in the past is a decent defense. Let me correct that, a healthy Bob Sanders. When Sanders is healthy, the defense plays well. When he is out, they suck. It's that simple.

CHARGERS -11.5 over Chiefs - The Chiefs are abysmal. The Chargers are pissed off now. This will not be pretty. If the Chargers find a way to lose, you can book Marty Schottenheimer on the NFL Sunday shows for a gloating session or two.

CARDINALS +6 over Steelers - I like the Cardinals to cover. At home, they are a different beast than on the road. The Steelers will probably win this one, but it will be tight.

Iggles -2.5 over GIANTS - The Iggles love to pass and the Giants cannot stop the pass. This is tailor made for McNabb. After this win, the mags will run the "Is McNabb back?" stories forgetting that the Lions and Giants both are terrible against the pass.

BENGALS +9 over Patriots - This is a stupid bet because the Bengals play sloppy, but I think this will be a shoot out. Final score 30-24 or 35-38, something high and fun to watch. I never though the Pats would have a fun to watch team as long as Brady and Belicheck were there: screen pass, WR screen pass, 5 yard slant, 5 yard out, fake screen pass to screen on the other side, that was their MO for years. Lame.

Season: 25-18-4

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