Saturday, September 22, 2007

NFL Week 3 Picks

As a Cowboys fan, I am moderating my excitement over their chances of making the playoffs and maybe even hosting a game or two. The offense looks solid with so many ways to attack defenses. I have been impressed with Romo this season so far, but once in a while, he forces a pass. That will end badly versus the good defenses. The defense is a bit weak in pass coverage, but with Newman coming back, it should improve a lot.

RAVENS -7.5 over Cardinals

Cardinals on the road, bad. Cardinals at home, take the points. They play extremely different when they are on the road. The Cardinals offense has a tough assignment trying to score on the Ravens. I can't believe I am typing this, but the Ravens are better off with Boller than with McNair at QB. McNair is done. This should be a big day for McGahee, so if he's on your fantasy team expect plenty of points.

PATRIOTS -16.5 over Bills

I can't believe the line is this big for a Pats game. I'm going with the home squad and laying the 3 score spread because I doubt the Bills ability to score. This spread is mindboggling.

Lions +6 over IGGLES

The window has officially closed on the Iggles. Good news for them is that it will probably take McNabb a few more weeks to get back to his normal self with his legs. Until then, the offense is 'enh'. It's not his rushing that does it, it's his ability to evade pass rushers and buy more time. Without the mobility in the pocket, the awful receivers will not be open. Then again, he is playing the Lions defense this week. When he retires, the Iggles should give him a plaque that reads "best QB with the shittiest WRs ever". That's been his career except for the first year with TO.

Colts -5.5 over TEXANS

The Texans without Andre Johnson are a completely different team. He truly makes the offense go, and he is such a physical specimen. He's out this week, crippling my fantasy football team. I am renaming it "Team Injured". Johnson is a special player, and it is nice to see him with a decent QB. He's not just catching dump passes and WR screens. He's running real routes and being hit in stride. Peyton should be good for 300 yards and 2 TDs in this one.

JETS -3 over Miami

After watching last week's finale to the Jets-Ravens, I am now a big believer in the Jets this season. I had previously thought they would fall to earth with an 8-8 or 7-9 season after last year. The new QB has me believing they can now scratch 10 wins out of this season. That 10 win season starts this week. The Dolphins have a weak armed, old QB. This is getting them nowhere and makes the passing over of Brady Quinn look even dumber.

CHIEFS -2.5 over Vikings

Tavaris Jackson is awful. The Chiefs are bad as well, but not nearly as bad as the Vikings. This -will be low scoring, maybe 17-13. Chiefs take it on another Jackson 4 INT game.

San Diego Chargers -4.5 over PACKERS

The Chargers have to be a bit antsy with Rivers performances in the big games he has played. He has been less than stellar, and one could argue he pissed that Pats game away with his 2 INTs early in the game. Unless your Manning, you cannot get down by 24 points tot he Pats in a half. Would Brees be playing better with the Chargers than Rivers? Yup. Did they make the right choice? We'll find out in 3 years. If they have not won a title in 3 years and LDT retires with his prime wasted, well you can blame AJ Smith and Marty Schottenheimer.

STEELERS -9 over 49ers

This will be a blowout. The Steelers have a lot of things working right: Ben looks back to normal self, Tomlin has the D playing better, Willie Parker andNajeh Davenport are a nice 1-2 out of the backfield. It's all coming together. They need to play well in these first 5 games to put some distance between them and the Bengals-Ravens. I'm fading on the Bengals because of their D, and the Ravens with McNair look weak offensively. The Steelers just might prove my preseason picks wrong and win the division.

TAMPA BAY -4 over Rams

If Garcia finds a way to win, we might have to rethink the NFC South. I doubt Garcia's ability to hold it together for 16 games. There is a reason the 49ers dumped him, and the Iggles didn't keep him around in case McNabb pulled a Culpepper with his knee. My Rams prediction of an NFC West title looks really bad right now.

SEAHAWKS -2.5 over Bengals

It's the Bengals awful defense. Wasn't Marvin Lewis a defensive genius? Yeah yeah. Looks like it was the talent on the Ravens in '01 that made him look good. Palmer and the Bengals can still put up 20 on anybody, but I doubt their ability to hold the other team to only 20.

RAIDERS -3 over Browns

I'm taking the home team in this contest of awful NFL teams. I pity anyone who is forced by CBS to watch this game.

DENVER -3 over Jaguars

I'm not sold on the Jags, and I have a hard time believing they will march into Denver and pull out a W. Both of these QBs need to step it up as they are hurting their teams chances of the postseason.

Panthers -4 over FALCONS

I am only wagering with the Panthers because it is Joey Harrington on the other side. If the Falcons cannot win this game, I will not be siding with them for any other games this year. They might as well lose out so they can draft Brohm and reunite him with Petrino.

REDSKINS -3.5 over Giants

The Giants are floundering defensively. The Skins have a solid running game, a good defense and efficient play from Jason Campbell. I doubt his ability over the 16 game season, and when he plays good defenses, he will be exposed. This could be the factor that keeps them out of the playoffs. Remember that Campbell scored a 6 on the Wonderlic his first try.

Cowboys +3 over BEARS

This is the game that forces Lovie Smith to use Brian Griese in the 2nd half. Safety blitzes will be the downfall of Rex in this game. The Bears have to consider the Griese option because they face all divisional foes the next 3 weeks. Rexa can put up good numbers on sh*tty competition like the NFC north, but that would just enable him to blow the big games that the Bears need to pull out. If the Cowboys do win this game, they have a big jump on the Iggles. I am not sold on the Skins and consider the Iggles the Boys challengers for the NFC East crown. If they can start out 3 games up on the Iggles, it will be too much to overcome.

SAINTS -3.5 over Titans

How did the Saints not get a home game until week 3? The Saints' defense is awful, but they do not have much to worry about besides containing Vince Young from the Titans.

OVERALL: 17-11-3 (I may be counting wrong but too lazy to check, derp)

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