Wednesday, January 31, 2007

Glad I don't gamble heavy on sports....

Being a douche at times, I pulled a total fuckstick move two weeks ago and kept hollering about how I would gladly bet my 401k rollover on the Pats to cover vs. Indy. While I was semi-joking, my rollover is in transit to Vanguard at this moment, I seriously considered a heavy wager on the Pats. In the end, I just could not face the possibility of saying to my wife that our future was financially in the hot zone because the Pats could not cover. Lesson learned was to know when to bet heavy and when to pull back a bit. Last week's game between Indianapolis and New England was a toss up, and I should not have been blinded by Belicheck and Brady like Bill "Belicheck's Ball Washer" Simmons always is. Know your limits, and when games look terrifying, stay away.

Compared to last week's AFC championship game, the Super Bowl looks much easier. There is a team playing well on both sides of the ball, with 2 weeks to rest after 19 games, and then there is the Bears. The Colts have played a tougher schedule in the regular season, a tougher schedule in the playoffs, and are peaking at the right time. They won 2 games with their MVp neutralized for most of the time. No disrespect to the Bears, but the NFC isn't a bag of HIV infected needles to rummage through in January. They had a bye and needed OT to beat the Seahawks, the phucking Seahawks, at home. The Saints drove on them left and right, and watched as the Bears recovered 3 fumbles. The Saints coughed up the ball, and almost every single time a Bear was there to fall on it. If this Bears defense had Mike Brown and Tommie Harris, I might be picking differently. The Colts should confuse Rex Grossman enough, and move the ball effectively to win the ballgame. Put Grossman down in a game, and he becomes a much worse QB. The Colts are my pick at -7.

With the grand tradition of prop bets, I am going to recommend a few. Last year, I dropped a deuce as a my prop bets sucked. Heath Miller can go phuck himself!

Peyton Manning over/under 273.5 passing yards: Over Either the Colts are down and he has to sling the ball non-stop or they are up big and pouring it on. He's going to throw a lot this week, and I can see this as being an exclamation point to his career. No in between: wow, you won the "Big One" in big fashion or just when we thought we were out, you sucked us back in, loser.

Bernard Berrian o/u 70.5 yards receiving: Over All it takes is one bomb. He is their deep strike guy, and we all know Grossman cannot help but shoot it downfield. Even witht he Bears down a ton, this plays into this wagers hands.

Rex Grossman total passing TDs + INTs o/u +2.5: Over Which Rex will show up? Regardless of which one shows up, it will be an interesting night for him. This bet is like a headge fund for gamblers.

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