Friday, October 20, 2006

NFL Picks week 7

I am thoroughly disgusted with myself after last week's ass whupping. I stunk so bad my last name might as well have been Simmons. I'm just disgusted with myself. I also have a problem with some of the heavy favorites. What was up with Cincy not running the ball on the old Tampa D? Why couldn't McFlab hit one of the many bombs he threw in Nawlins?

Panthers +3.5 over BENGALS
Levi Jones is out, the center is out, and Palmer still has not regained all of his mobility. I think Carolina's D-linemen are going to have a field day with the pass rush. The Bengals should take advantage of the depleted LB corps for the Panthers. If I were the OC, I would call a couple of screens to Rudi Johnson to get the D-linemen to think twice. Throw the screens with Rudi in because when Watson goes in, it is almost guaranteed to be a pass.

JETS -3.5 over Lions
I have no comment on the Lions. I do have a comment on the boy genius Magini. If he is so smart why were the Jets throwing on 3rd and 2 with 2:40 left in the game? A run would have forced the Phins to use a TO or to let the clock run to the 2 minute warning? Genius! I watched Chad Pennington closely and he is shot putting the ball. He has no zip at all. I'd have my DBs play off of Jets WRs so to take away the deeper balls and force him to throw "lasers" to complete the short outs, ins, and slants. They can step in and pick them at will.

Packers +5.5 over DOLPHINS
Huge fantasy game for me as I have 2 WRs and a RB in this game. I am hoping for a shoot out. I want a 35-30 score with lots of air time for Jennings and Driver. If they did not have a QB hanging them out to dry, they might have something going in the passing game. I'd like to see Ronnie Brown work the middle fo the Packers defense. The Phins were running wide last week, and they do not have the speed at O-line to pull linemen effectively. Just punch it up the gut and take some pressure off of the O-linemen: "Move this guy back/left/right for 1.5 seconds".

Jags -10 over TEXANS
The Jags should be able to walk their way to a 10 win season. They have the AFC L-east, their weak division foes (excluding Indy), the Chiefs, and the Giants at home. I hope that this year, if they have to travel to Foxboro in January, that they have a healthy Leftwich. Things could be different this time around.

Pats -5.5 over BILLS
I sincerely dislike the Pats (for the 1,000th time), but I have to go with them. The Pats don't look like they have it this year. They might have let one too many guys go in the passing game. If they could have agreed to terms with just one of the WRs they let go, Brady might be able to throw a 5 yard slant instead of always trying to hit that deep seam pass which he doesnt do as well since the ball has to travel longer than 7 yards. The $12 mil under the cap looks really nice right now. A bigger question is to the very stupid news reporters who said that the Pats did not want to give up a no. 1 for Randy Moss. Either the reporters are dumb or the Pats are dumb, but right now they have Seattle's no. 1 pick and their no. 1. One of those could go to the Raiders for Moss. Moss > Branch.

Eagles -5.5 over BUCS
McFlab is going to bounce back this week and absolutely destroy the Bucs D. I think he has one of those 4 TD games in him this week. The kind where he eats up a bad defense and does a stupid dance after a TD pass. I hope that this year he does win the MVP, because for years he has be the be all end all for that offense. The 2001 season was arguably his most MVP season for them because of how he carried that offense, but his level of play this year is at his highest. Now he has a midget named Westbrook to help shoulder some of the load.

Steelers -2.5 over FALCONS
The reason teams in the NFL don't use the toption is because the beatings QBs take and the speed of NFL defenses. Watching the Falcons quasi-spread offense come to a halt in 5 weeks has been fun. Here's a shout out to Warrick Dunn, who, if used properly in his first couple years in the NFL, could have retired with the same glow that Curtis Martin and Jerome Bettis have received. Those two are not Hall of Famers and neither is Warrick Dunn, yet they get tons of glowing coverage and will probably be elected. F-Halls of Fame.

Chargers -4.5 over CHIEFS
Woohoo! only 4.5 at Pinnacle right now, please go there and wager as fast as possible. I have said it before, watching the Chiefs get beat down by superior teams after they run the score up on weaklings is lots of fun. I was stupid to think they could beat the Steelers last week, and I will not make the same mistake (picking the Chiefs against quality foes) twice.

BROWNS +5 over Broncos
It's the spread and the road trip. The Broncos also don't care how much they beat opponents by. Shanahan also doesn't want to push Plummer at all.

Cardinals -3 over RAIDERS
The Raiders passed on Leinart. I mentioned this weeks ago as a stupid move, and this week can be step 1 in the revenge game schedule Matt Leinart has to run through over the course of his career. I can't wait until he plays the Titans.

Vikings +7 over SEAHAWKS
I like Minny's defense matching up against the Hawks. The Seahawks are pretty one dimensional right now, and Minnesota's pass defense is decent enough to keep them in check. I think the game film fromt he Bears game has been on replay non-stop in Minnesota this week.

Skins +9 over COLTS
The Skins can run the ball. Portis should get 20+ carries. Hear me Mr. Gibbs? The Colts will pick their defense apart. It's going to be high scoring and 9 should be enough to cover.

DALLAS -3 over Giants
I do not like the Giants on the road, and I do not like Eli versus the Dallas defense. This should be a traditional, low scoring NFC East affair. Maybe 17-10. Whomever wins this game can grab the wildcard and maybe even the division (depends on Westbrook's knee for Philly). Both teams have tough stretches of games coming up, and need this win to kick start playoff chances.

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