Friday, October 13, 2006

nfl picks week 6

Buffalo -1 over DETROIT Buffalo's strengths on defense match up well against the Lions. The Lions still are not running the ball and have a dinged up Roy Williams.

Carolina +3 over RAVENS Sorry, but the Ravens just do not have it offensively. They can not move the ball, and are relying on their defense to score or put them in short field position. That can work with mistake prone offenses. The over/under is 33; go with the under. This has 17-9 written all over it.

Bengals -5 over BUCS The Bengals have a great RB; the Bucs a bad run D. Not a great mix. Palmer has performed okay since coming back, and considering Culpepper's return, that is great! I said this last year, people were doubting Palmer's return yet he blew only 1 ligament, Culpepper blew 3. Rudi Johnson should have 100+ yards and 2 TDs. Marvin Lewis will probably workt he run game to take the load off of Palmer.

DALLAS -12.5 over Texans Texans on the road, bah. This one will not be pretty. The Dallas offense will have too much firepower for the Texans, and the Texans might squeak out 10 points. The Dallas front seven will be too quick for the Texans line. I think the Cowboys/Eagles game last week will be stuck in their minds and probably push TO to go off on the lowly Texans.

FALCONS -3 over Giants Atlanta's defense should get to Eli on a consistent basis and force him to make those "back foot" throws. With the Atlanta secondary, there could be some INT TD Return opportunities. If I were the O-coordinator for the Giants, I'd start the game in the no huddle, with Shockey lined up in the slot. Eli works well in the no huddle, and it would force the Falcons to stick to one package of defense.

Eagles -3 over SAINTS I love the Saints story, I really do. I just don't think they have the stuff to take down the Iggles this week. McNabb showed he can play at a super high level with bums as weapons, and he did it against the Dallas defense. The Saints are not at that level for defense yet. The key for the Saints moving the ball will be keeping Drew Brees upright. If they can, he can get the ball to his weapons and force the Iggles to respect the passing game, which will open lanes up for Deuce and Reggie.

Seattle -3 over St. Louis The Rams have 2 cornerbacks out. Not what you want to be missing when the Seahawks come to town. I know Shaun Alexander is out again, but Hasselback should have a 300 yard game with his receiving options. Deion Branch now has several weeks under his belt with the Seahawks offense, and that should make a big difference in his play.

SKINS -10.5 over Titans Titans on the road, Skins at home with a healthy Portis: no brainer. This should be a big day for the Skins offense. Look for them to put up 30+ points.

Chiefs +7 over STEELERS I like Big Ben a lot. I just don't think he is 100%. I don't think they have it this week; look at their injury list. Key parts of their D are out this week. The Chiefs offense should put up 20 points on Pittsburgh, and with the +7, this would force the Steelers offense to put up 4 TDs to cover. You think they can do that right now?

Miami +2 over NY JETS I think this is the week Nick Saban lays into the O-line and they get Ronnie Brown 100 yards. He can haul, and they just need to give him a crease for that 4.35 speed to kick in. The Jets are weak up the middle, and if they stick to the run early, they will wear the Jets D down. The Jets let Jason Ferguson go last year, and John Abraham go this year. You can't lose two quality D-lineman and expect to be strong up front. Think about how the Pats and Iggles are always drafting big D-lineman. The Mangina is a couple of years away from building his 3-4 defense.

San Diego -10 over 49ERS Alex Smith is not doing anything this week. The Chargers pass rush should put him on his back and contain their offense. These guys put a 0 spot up against the Chiefs. San Diego will win big.

DENVER -14.5 over Raiders There is no reason to wager on the Raiders, even with a 2 TD spread. I've got a feeling that Moss is going to end up on the Ravens by year's end.

Bears -9.5 over CARDINALS Sorry Matt Leinart, meet the new Monsters of the Midway.

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