Saturday, September 30, 2006

NFL week 4 picks

Dallas -9 over TITANS
If TO plays, he will put up 100 yards and 2 TDs. I think he's going to use this accidental overdose as a way to come back with a vengeance. That statement does not make any sense. My real reason for this wager is Dallas' defense which should destroy the inept offense of the Titans. I also think Dallas will be able to pound the ball with Jones and Barber. I think they'll run the ball 35+ times this week. They may not even need TO if he plays. Considering the defenses that the Titans have faced, I do not think they will match up well with the 3-4 schemes of the 'Boys. Dallas' defense is maybe a bit faster than San Diego's and the Titans got nowhere on them. Dallas has forced critical turnovers in their first two games this season, and I think that trend will continue this week.

Indy -9 over JETS
The Jets do not have a running game, and that is the way to beat the Colts. I also think their defense is terrible. If you have any receiver for the Colts, start them on your fantasy team this week. I am interested in how the Colts are going to run or stop the run come January. Addai needs to step up before then to alleviate some strain on their passing game because we know what can happen to Manning when he has to do everything in the postseason. Their defense also has to toughen up on the run, but everyone knows when you have a smaller, fast defense, you're vulnerable to a rushing attack.

Miami -3.5 over HOUSTON
Houston is beyond terrible, and I cannot believe I took points with them last week. David Carr is the bright shining spot for this team, and hopefully, he can earn himself a ticket to another franchise. I have said it before, he could be a breakout star for another team. I'd love to see him go to Minny or some other team with ready made weapons, a decent O-line, but no QB.Ronnie Brown will probably run for 125+ this week. If he does not, the Dolphins line is in worse shape than I thought. Pound the ball and take it out of Culpepper's hands.

BUFFALO (even) over Vikings
Great pass defense with no offense at home versus a team with no real offense and a good defense. I take the home team. The Bills have looked much better in their games than the Vikings. The Vikings need a Qb for the future because they can just waste time with the talented weapons they have with a 39 year old QB throwing to them.

Saints +7 over PANTHERS
This game makes me nervous but for some reason, the Panthers team just does not have it together this year. I know Steve Smith is really amazing, but they shouldn't nearly blow a game to a team whose QB has internal damage. I like the Saints ability to pound the Panthers with both Bush and Deuce this week. It will help rest their defense just to chew up clock.

San Diego -2.5 over RAVENS
San Diego is my pick to win the AFC West. If the Colts look shaky in their Bengals and Pats games, I may move the Chargers to my number 1 AFC team. This game will make more people believe because for some reasont he Ravens D is playing like it is 2000. Well, against bad competition.. They lucked into an easier schedule because of their 3rd place finish in the west last year. They have everyone rested because they did not make the playoffs. They have an amazing ground game, and can slowly bring along Rivers through the season to get him ready fro the playoffs. They do not have to force him to win games because their defense is so stout and the running game is so good. He can pull a Big Ben in '04.

San Fran +7 over KC
KC is dead without Trent Green. Huard can throw dump off passes, and that is it. I like the points here, because San Fran will be scoring plenty. I'm sitting Eddie Kennison on the bench right now because Trent Green is not in the lineup. It's killing me to have one good WR.

RAMS -5.5 over Lions
The Lions are so bad that Millen is starting to look smart for being able to keep his job for so long. I want the Lions to draft Dwayne Jarrett next year to add another 6 foot 5 receiver to their team. Maybe he can mushroom to 230-240 lbs like Mike Williams. Speaking of Mike Williams, it's amazing how the Maurice Clarett early entry has nearly destroyed his career as well. The NCAA jobbed him by not allowing him to re-enter the Trojans program (which steamrolled competition without him). During his off year, he worked out with Chris Carter on running routes, ran a 4.55, and was drafted in the top 15. Since the draft he has added 20+ lbs, and been listed as inactive on a terrible team. In 5 years, he could be in shape and destroying defenses as a 27 yr old that is a mismatch no matter who covers him. In 5 years, he could be out of football on a police blotter for throwing away his NFL money on drugs.

Browns -2.5 over RAIDERS
Who is Q for the Raiders? Why did they pass on Matt Leinart? Why did they sign lamont jordan? Why aren't they shopping randy moss around? Why isn't Gallery the next Tony Boselli? With Leinart, they'd at least have a future to look forward to. The 2005 NFL draft had a ton of RB prospects out there, and the Raiders threw away their top 1st round pick for Randy Moss without a healthy gunslinger to throw the bombs to him. With those 2 picks they could have bundled them to move up and pick one of the top 3 backs. Even doing the trade, they could have grabbed a serviceable RB instead of signing Lamont Jordan. Al Davis needs to pass on so they can bring in new management.

Jags -3 over Skins
Beating up on the Texans is not a statement game for the Skins and the Jags will be smarting after the loss to the Colts. The Skins offense will be overmatched versus the Jags defense. They have the power in the front line to stuff the Skins rushing attack and force Brunell to beat them. If the Jaguars could figure out a way to beat the Colts, they could host a playoff game. It makes a huge difference home versus on the road in the playoffs and add to that the Florida team in cold weather factor.

BENGALS -6 over Pats
This will be the point in the season where the Pats show their true colors as the 10-6 AFC L-East champs. They'll host a playoff game, and probably get the snot beaten out of them by the Broncos or Jags. I'm hoping Rudi Johnson pulls out a big game because his no show last week made me lose my fantasy match up by .5 points. Anyone know a QB who has bounced throws and created turnovers to benefit the other side? Tom Brady, yeah, Mr. Make no Mistakes himself. If Phil Simms announces this game, listen for his glossing over of Brady's bad throws (the one hopper in week 1 was hysterical to listen to Simms cover up).

Because the Pats are the most expensive team to see live, I have this scary feeling that the Pats ownership is not playing to win. It is as if they know they can win the division and host a playoff game, which generates huge dollars for the home teams. The team is 13 mil under the cap, generates huge revenue streams, and is probably printing money. Because of the 3 SBs in 4 years, they do not need to deliver the goods to the fan base. They can sit back, build a young team for another serious push in a couple of years, and still make tons of money.

BEARS -3.5 over Hawks
The Bears Defense will handle the Hawks because Shaun Alexander is not there. Even with Shaun, I don't see the Hawks scoring more than 20 points. I do see the Bears Defense forcing turnovers because Hasselback is going to have to throw 35-40 times this week. This will probably decide home field advantage in the NFC. I can see the NFC playing out like it did last year, with the South and East beating each other up leaving the conference to whomever gets homefield. Seattle never impresses me. They were the shabbiest 13-3 team in recent memory, but because they get homefield, it's almost a lock come playoff time with how beat up the South and East teams are. I even commented on this last year about the Seahawks having an easy road to the Super Bowl.

Packers +11 over EAGLES
I can see the Packers scoring enough garbage time points to cover. The Eagles have a problem with consistency, as shown by the last two weeks. While this is a home game, it is a MNF game for Favre to put on his holster and play the part of gunslinger one last time.

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